No. 45·中文精读

AI办成事才收钱,转人工免费:Bret Taylor谈Agent如何重写软件生意

LIVE: How AI is Reinventing Software Business Models ft. Bret Taylor of Sierra

Sierra 联合创始人 Bret Taylor 在 AI Ascent 2025 现场谈 AI 推动定价从订阅制转向结果导向,以及为何应用型 AI 与垂直深耕是创业者的最大机会。

节目音频00:00 / 34:30
中文精读由 AI 基于原始访谈改写,非官方翻译,可能存在偏差或错误;表述以原节目为准。

先看一份有点奇怪的价目表。

Sierra给企业客户收费的方式是这样的:AI客服自己把用户的问题解决了,按事先谈好的单价收一笔钱;问题太难,AI搞不定,转给人工处理,一分钱不收。

把「转人工免费」写进合同,等于把自家收入和客户的客户体验绑死。敢这么定价的人叫Bret Taylor,Sierra的联合创始人兼CEO,同时担任OpenAI董事长。他的履历随便拎一条出来都够写篇人物稿:在Google第一届APM项目里,一个周末重写了整个Google Maps;创办的FriendFeed被Facebook收购后,他一路做到Facebook的CTO;后来去Salesforce当联席CEO;再后来出来创业做Sierra。

这是红杉资本播客Training Data的一场现场对谈,提问的是红杉合伙人Ravi Gupta。Ravi开场调侃,同时拥有Jeff Dean和Bret Taylor的工程师阵容,相当于球队同时签下勒布朗和库里。整场聊得很实,从怎么当好CEO,到Agent公司怎么定价,再到企业软件的第一家万亿美元公司会从哪长出来。挑重点讲。

只修自己顺手的零件,是创业者的通病

Ravi的第一个问题是:一个被称作「万倍工程师」的人,怎么敢去做工程以外的事?

Bret从创业者的一种通病讲起。创业者往往带着某一项独特洞见出来创业,技术出身的洞见是技术,做BD的看到合作机会,做金融的看到市场低效。麻烦在于,很多人会变成「单一议题选民」,公司一出问题,就只修自己顺手的那个零件。做产品的人一遇到瓶颈就去改版,他管这种临终改版叫「死猫弹」,从高处摔下来的死猫也会弹一下,弹完接着跌。

他自己的至暗时刻在Facebook。年纪轻轻当上CTO,他自嘲是当时公司里最老的一批人,实际上完全不知道自己在干什么,什么事都想亲自上手。时任COO的Sheryl Sandberg把他拉到一边,谈了一次话:

「你得用对自己的标准去要求团队。别再亲自干活了,谁达不到要求就换掉。你现在这种做法,撑不起公司的规模。」

他难受了一个小时,第二天反而来劲了。复盘时他发现自己一直在做一件事:把这份工作掰成自己擅长的样子。正确的问法是,今天这份工作里最重要的事是什么,哪怕它无聊、不性感。后来他把自己当成自己的董事会,有时该听产品的,有时该听销售的,有时该听技术的。有意思的是,他反而更快乐了,他从「做成事」里获得的满足感,超过了「亲手做事」。Facebook的老同事记得他是工程师,Salesforce的老同事记得他是穿西装的老板,他说自己哪一种都不是,只是每天出现,去搞定该搞定的事。

Ravi把这段话收成一句他拿来教孩子的话:别让你擅长的事,变成你这个人本身。

Bret给创业者补了一句:公司早期,产品几乎就是一切,找到最初一批满意的客户就行。规模一大,你需要擅长的事就变了。能不能意识到这一点,并且真把时间挪过去,决定公司会不会从你手里滑走。

Sierra的赌注:每家公司只需要一个Agent

Sierra帮企业搭建面向客户的AI Agent。Bret的核心判断是:每家公司的主要数字界面,会从官网变成一个Agent。

他的参照系是过去二十年。二十年前,一家公司的主要数字门面是官网,当年能被雅虎目录收录是件了不起的事。后来门面变成社交账号和App。他又给了个数字感受:现在数字交互里,触屏和键盘的比例是多少?触屏没有完全取代键盘,但明显占了上风。他押注五年后,绝大多数数字交互会通过Agent发生。到那时,每家公司需要的都是一个独一无二的Agent,注意,是单数,顶着自家品牌,代表完整的客户体验。就像今天没人把官网当成一块技术,它就是品牌和生意本身。

客户名单里有ADT家庭安防和SiriusXM。这事一半是技术,一半是生意:ADT的客户可能正碰上警报器坏了,SiriusXM的客户可能因为促销期结束想要个更便宜的套餐。Agent得懂这些事。

三层生意:模型收税,卖铲子的离太阳太近

作为OpenAI董事长兼一家应用层公司创始人,Bret被问到那个绕不开的问题:钱最后归基础模型,还是归应用层?他先声明,这是一个「强观点、弱持有」的判断,然后把市场切成三层。

第一层,基础模型。这个市场会剧烈整合,本质是资本密集生意,核心开销就是建数据中心,规模能生规模。终局像云计算市场:少数几家玩家,利润率不高,规模极大,向整个AI生态「收税」。

第二层,卖铲子的,淘金热里卖镐头的人。Databricks、Snowflake这些大模型出现前成立的公司,加上一批新公司。麻烦在于这层离模型太近,他的原话是「离太阳太近」,每家云厂商都可能做个对标产品,随时可能被基础模型公司威胁。能做得很大,但日子不好过。

第三层,应用层AI,形态就是Agent。Harvey做法律行业的Agent,Sierra做客户体验的Agent,还有做营销的、做视觉特效的。他的判断很直接:这就是新一代SaaS(软件即服务),购买AI的形态,就是购买一个能干活的Agent。

他看了一眼公开市场:标普500里市值最高的那批软件公司,没有一家是纯SaaS,微软有企业软件,亚马逊有AWS,但它们本质上是基础设施公司和消费公司。纯SaaS阵营的ServiceNow、Salesforce、SAP、Oracle,市值都停在2000亿到3000亿美元区间。他抛出一个问题:Agent时代,会不会出现第一家万亿美元的应用软件公司?他的答案是会,因为生意从「卖效率提升」变成了「卖结果」,而结果可以非常值钱。给律师卖效率工具,天花板一眼能看到;给企业卖「反垄断审查」这个结果,替代的是原本高成本的人力,市场完全另算。

他补了一句挺扎心的观察:ChatGPT火了之后,很多大企业兴奋地采购了一堆模型授权,但软件像草坪,得一直修剪。现在市场上大量「买家后悔」,概念验证做了一堆,价值没见着多少。铲子谁都看得见,价值在别处,把新一代技术用到原本昂贵的业务问题上,用便宜一个数量级的价格卖出去,这生意好做得离谱。

按结果收费:软件商业模式的第三次换代

回到开头那份价目表。Sierra管这套叫「按结果收费」(outcomes-based pricing):对典型客户,AI Agent自主解决了问题,按事先谈好的费率收费;需要升级到人工,免费。设计初衷就是和客户的利益对齐。

Bret把它放进软件商业模式的历史里看:第一代是盒装软件,一次性买断;软件搬进浏览器后,所有人用同一个版本,厂商得找到能持续养研发的收费方式,于是有了第二代,SaaS订阅;现在卖的是「把活干完」的软件,那就按活干得好不好收钱。

「销售拿提成,AI为什么不能拿?」

这套模式会掀翻企业软件的很多惯例。传统企业软件里,厂商和客户保持一种「一臂之遥」的关系:软件卖出去,系统集成商进场,实施六个月到一年,等软件真正用起来,厂商早去卖下一单了,和结果基本脱钩。按结果收费,等于厂商把自己的收入押在客户的结局上。还有那个所有人都在聊的问题:会写代码的Agent普及之后,靠人力堆出来的实施和咨询行业怎么办?

他引用乔布斯的话:当海盗比当海军有意思。现在是创业的好时候,因为在座的大多数人没有被旧商业模式绑架。他翻了一遍历史:Salesforce赢过Siebel,ServiceNow赢过前面一堆ITSM公司。产品上追平技术差距,难,但做得到;让一家公司换商业模式,难得多。微软从Windows转向Azure,过程别扭到什么程度大家都看到了,纳德拉值得大书特书,Adobe的Shantanu把收入改成订阅同样漂亮,但CEO因为完成不了这种转型而下课的,能排成一个墓园,上市公司的股东没有耐心等你。

所以他对创业者的忠告是:AI会带来新的交付方式、新的技术范式,同样重要的是新的商业模式,别浪费商业模式这个优势,它通常是初创公司相对巨头最大的长处之一。

怎么卖:老公司、垂直场景和采购流程

Ravi现场考他,ADT里的T是什么意思。答案是Telegraph,电报。这家一百多年前靠电报做家庭安防的公司,Bret脑补它当年去融资的画面:家庭安防,通过电报,大概相当于今天跟红杉说「猫的YouTube」。现在这家公司用AI Agent卖安防服务,他觉得这事很酷。

他的观点是,越是在竞争激烈市场里的老公司,越有动力接住AI。家庭安防是红海,SiriusXM有独家内容,但挡不住用户取消有线电视。AI能在过去被软件严重服务不足的部门里释放生产力:大型呼叫中心、法务、运营。有公司养着两万人的呼叫中心,一年烧掉数亿美元,这些运营成本省下来,可以降价,可以投增长,直接改写单位经济效益,进而改写市场份额。他拿互联网诞生做类比:浏览器出现之后,沃尔玛活得很好,Blockbuster死了。现在这批高管经历过浏览器、智能手机、Instacart和DoorDash,他们知道该紧张。

接着是销售建议,这部分他讲得非常具体。卖东西的关键是说客户的语言,有同理心。好的销售开场先问一堆问题,认真听,然后把你的技术价值映射到对方刚描述完的问题上。现在的问题是,企业客户每天被二十家AI厂商轰炸,每家的PPT用词都一样,完全不同赛道的两家初创公司,第一页幻灯片上写着同样的话。怎么在饱和市场里被记住,是当下真正的课题。

他给了一个立刻能用的技巧:见客户之前,用ChatGPT的deep research功能把对方公司查透。花在研究客户上的时间多一点,花在想下一个功能上的时间少一点,那场对话就会好很多。你要找的是你的差异化和对方业务价值的交点。

他和联合创始人Clay Bavor都在上世纪90年代末的互联网泡沫期开过网页设计公司,Bret挨家挨户跑花店,Clay做图形类的活,赚得比他多,公司起名Claymation,后来被「加州葡萄干」告了。回头看那个年代,有AltaVista、Inktomi、Buy.com、Half.com,赢家写历史书,让人忘了当时是刺刀见红。「做搜索引擎」这个想法本身一点都不新鲜,胜负手在执行的细节里。

关于垂直还是横向,台下有人直接问。Bret说他坚定相信垂直:电信公司的Agent、商业银行的Agent、保险理赔的Agent、医保公司回答福利说明的Agent,每一个都高度特化。他对横向AI平台持怀疑态度,LangChain这类开源项目也许能成,但走另一条路;纯商业化的横向企业平台很难卖,因为市场上有一堆「够用了」的方案、一堆自研方案,还有「非我发明」综合征,一个稍微好一点的老鼠夹,过不了「维生素还是止痛药」那条线。他的经验法则:离解决一家公司的具体问题越近,生意越容易成功。

他还从Marc Benioff那里学了一招:有一个成功客户,就把它变成两个;有两个,变成十个;有十个,变成一百个。B2B软件生意需要的是战术上的扎实,象牙塔里的聪明很少赢。客户成功的地方就是真相所在,也是产品该去的地方。

定价的细节里藏着一个他很喜欢的故事。LinkedIn做招聘业务时,最初按用量收费,后来发现HR部门根本没有弹性预算的权限,改成订阅制之后,采购流程反而顺畅了。他补了一句,这故事他没考证过真假,但它改变了他想问题的方式。定价问题得往采购链路的深处看:决策人是谁,谁签字,钱从哪个预算出。

被私募基金控股的公司一天说二十遍EBITDA,在乎省钱;竞争激烈的行业CEO更在乎增长。他还反驳了一个流行担忧:模型变便宜,算力需求会跌吗?不会,新用例会冒出来,需求反而涨,AI省下来的钱也会被成熟公司重新投进增长。省钱并非不重要,过去30年全球生产率的增长并没有90年代那波之后人们期待的那么猛。但省钱会被压缩,现在AI创业公司对标的是人力成本,十年后对标的是其他AI Agent,省钱像一种短效药,而可衡量的收入端结果永远更值钱。还有个反直觉的观察:有时候让客户预付,比按量付费更容易成交。

创业变轻了,剩下的时间该花在哪

对谈里还有一段关于「现在创业和以前有什么不同」。FriendFeed时代,他们自己攒服务器搬进机房,有一次绊到一根电源线,全站宕机,他点名这是联合创始人Sanjeev的锅,补了一句「我们爱他」。现在,云厂商、GitHub、开源库,再加上Ramp、Rippling这类把财务和人事杂活包掉的公司,创业的脚手架几乎不用自己搭。他当年给员工办信用卡,每个人都要查信用记录,他当场崩溃,那可是公司自己的账户。现在用Ramp,一张虚拟卡几秒钟印出来。

他的感慨是,创业的智力开销降到空前低,你可以把全部精力放在真正定义公司的东西上。但他也提醒,很多小公司的错误恰恰是把资源花在不核心的事情上,那些事像猫薄荷,做起来很爽。每一点时间花在商品化的东西上,就是没花在卖产品和做差异化上。他和Clay的决策过滤器很简单:一年之后,什么事会让我们高兴?

最后收个尾,这场对谈里明天就能用的东西,挑五件:

  • 见客户之前,用ChatGPT的deep research把对方公司查一遍,把开场白从「我们有什么功能」换成「你们刚说的那个问题」。
  • 检查这周日程:有几件事是换家公司也能做的?商品化的活,能买就买,能砍就砍,省下的时间全部投给差异化。
  • 定价前先画客户的采购链路:谁用、谁批、钱从哪个预算出,再决定按量、订阅还是按结果收费。
  • 卖AI产品的,把PPT里的行业黑话删掉,用客户描述问题时的原话重写第一页。
  • 做决策卡壳时问一句:一年之后,什么事会让我高兴?

按结果收费能不能成为AI时代的标准商业模式,现在下结论还早。但一个做过工程师、做过CTO、做过联席CEO的人,把自家收入和「AI到底有没有帮客户解决问题」绑在一起,这个动作本身,比大多数关于Agent的宏论都有信息量。

文稿来源:sequoiacap.com;机器转写可能有识别错误,人名与数字请以音频为准。
id="podcast-transcript" data-framer-component-type="RichTextContainer" style="transform:none">Pat Grady: Next up, we have Bret Taylor. He was part of the, I think, first APM program at Google, where he famously rewrote all of Google Maps in a weekend. Then he founded a company, then he went ahead and was just CTO of Facebook for a while. And then he founded another company, which we’re lucky enough to be in business with him on, which is redefining the front door for businesses. And Bret will be joined by our partner Ravi, who used to deliver groceries and now gives people money. About the same. Please welcome Ravi and Bret. [applause] Ravi Gupta: Yeah, but a lot of groceries. Okay. I thought Pat was saying I was the legend, so I was pretty upset when apparently it was Bret. Bret Taylor: You’re a legend to me. Ravi Gupta: Thank you. I really appreciate you saying that. Having Jeff Dean and then Bret Taylor is like having LeBron and Steph of engineers. It’s amazing. Or Roelof, two random rugby people that only you know. You know, like, that’s maybe an analogy you’d get. All right, I want to ask you a question. There’s very few people that have been described as 10,000-x engineers—probably in general—but also extremely, extremely few people who’ve done that and also been good at enterprise sales. Okay? And I think one of the things that will be fun today is we can be, like, highfalutin and talk about where the world’s going, but we can also talk about, like, how to sell things. And so the question I have before we get to tactical advice on that is like, what made you even think that you could do something other than just be an amazing engineer? Bret Taylor: Yeah, I actually think this is one of the greatest challenges to overcome as an entrepreneur. This is really reductive, but I think if you talk to an entrepreneur, they often have some unique insight on the business they’re creating. So maybe it’s a technical insight. If they come from a background in, say, business development, maybe they see an opportunity in the market that they can take advantage of as a partnership or business opportunity. In the financial services industry, maybe you see an inefficiency in the market you can take advantage of. The issue I see with a lot of entrepreneurs is you sort of become single-issue voters. It’s like every time there’s a problem in your business, if you’re a product person, you go change the product. There’s always the famed redesign, like the dead cat bounce before your company gets destroyed. And it turns out that as you’re growing your business, at any given point, you may have a go-to-market problem, you may have a product problem, you have a competitive problem. And I think the hardest thing is when you come out of business with what you’re comfortable with, you regress to sort of what makes you comfortable. For me, my most vulnerable moment was when I was 29 I became the CTO of Facebook. I was one of the older people at Facebook at the time. [CROSSTALK] Bret Taylor: I didn’t know at the—I actually was about to cuss. I shouldn’t cuss. I didn’t know what I was doing. You told me this was recorded. [CROSSTALK] Ravi Gupta: I think that you should not give away state secrets about OpenAI. Bret Taylor: Yeah. Ravi Gupta: You can curse. It’s fine. It’s good. Doing what the job demandsBret Taylor: And I wouldn’t have self described that I was sort of struggling in my job, but I think I was. I was sort of trying to do everything myself. And Sheryl Sandberg, who was the chief operating officer at the time, took me aside and kind of had a sort of come to Jesus conversation with me, essentially saying, “You need to hold your team to as high of a standard as you hold yourself. You need to stop trying to do the work yourself, and you need to identify the people who aren’t meeting your needs, replace them, but you’re not scaling the way you’re operating effectively.” And it was kind of the conversation I needed to have at that moment. I felt really shitty for about an hour, and then woke up the next day with kind of a fire in my belly. And I realized upon reflection—she didn’t sort of diagnose it this way, but upon my reflection, I was going into work every day and trying to say, “How do I conform this job to me and my strengths?” Instead of thinking, “What’s the most important thing to do in this job today, even if it’s not something I find delightful or interesting?” So I sort of came at the job, and I always modeled it as giving myself advice. Like, I was sort of my own board of directors. And sometimes it would be people, sometimes it would be business, sometimes it would be technology. I was the CTO, so hopefully it wasn’t that some of the time. And interestingly enough, I got more joy from it. I realized at that point I actually just appreciated having an impact more than I appreciated any act of doing my job. And so I ended up with this really nice reinforcement of, wow, I’m better at my job than I was last month because I’m not just doing what I like or what I feel comfortable doing. And that ended up a really virtuous cycle. So I’ve been a little bit of a chameleon. You know, it’s interesting. If I meet people from Facebook, they think of me as an engineer. If I meet people from Salesforce, they think of me like a suit, you know? Like, or I don’t know, generously I don’t know, something, the boss? And I’m not any one of those things. I just sort of showed up every day to, you know, to have an impact. And as I said, I just gained a ton of joy from it. And the reason I bring it up for the entrepreneurs in the room is I think at every stage of your company, at the beginning, product probably is all that matters, you know, finding your first n happy customers. As you scale, what you need to be great at changes. And I think having the self awareness and self reflection to actually change what you spend your time on is actually, I think, one of the greatest challenges of not having your company sort of get away from you and continuing to be an effective leader at that company. Ravi Gupta: I would tell you, I think it’s something—just so you have it, it’s something I have taken and share with my kids, which is like, don’t let something you’re good at become who you are, right? And I think that that is something I’ve learned from you that I really appreciate and I think you’re doing in the day to day. So tell people about Sierra. Why did you and Clay start it? What’s the vision? What are you guys up to? The vision for SierraBret Taylor: At Sierra, we help companies build customer-facing AI agents. We started on the hypothesis that every company’s main digital interface will be an AI agent, you know, and maybe 20 years ago your main digital presence was your website, your dot.com. Remember listing on Yahoo directory was the bee’s knees back in the day? Ravi Gupta: I do. I do remember that. Bret Taylor: Thank you, old man. Ravi Gupta: Yeah, thank you for noticing. Bret Taylor: And then for a lot of brands, whether it was your social profile or your mobile app, you know, companies have a lot of different digital touch points today. Our hypothesis—I don’t know if you measured it, like, what percentage of digital interactions happen on a touchscreen now versus a keyboard? It never replaces, but it certainly sort of displaces. Our hypothesis as you fast forward five years, the vast majority of digital interactions will happen via an agent. And as a consequence, every company will need their singular agent—not plural—the one that has their brand at the top that represents the whole of their customer experience. And so we’ve worked with a lot of different companies from ADT Home Security to Sirius XM to help them build their primary customer-facing AI agent. A lot of it is AI and it’s an agent, but a lot of it is also business. You know, like, what is the customer experience you’re providing for ADT Home Security? Your alarm might be going off, your alarm might be broken. For Sirius XM, someone might want a better price on their plan because their promotional period expired. So it’s actually really interesting because just like your website, I don’t think most people think of websites as a piece of technology nowadays, right? It’s almost just an expression of your brand and your business. That’s actually kind of the agents that companies are building on our platform. But I hope, you know, if we’re successful, if you run across a branded AI agent in the wild, I hope it’s powered by our platform. That’s what we’re trying to do. The application layerRavi Gupta: And one of the things that comes up a lot is like, what are the foundation models going to do versus what are the application layer companies going to go do, right? And I think you have probably the most unique vantage point on this, being the chair of OpenAI as well as building an application layer company. So can you help our founders here think about what is going to belong to them versus the foundation models? Bret Taylor: Yeah, I’ll say a strong opinion loosely held on this. So I think there’s really three big markets that I see, and I’ll end with the one I think is the most exciting. First you have the foundation models, and Jeff said something similar to this. But I think there’s going to be a ton of consolidation in the foundation model market. It’s fundamentally just a capital intensive business, just like building data centers—effectively, it is building data centers, you know, at the core of the expense. And as a consequence, if you have large scale CapEx, you can generate more CapEx and it sort of benefits scale. And as a consequence I think it will end up a little bit like the cloud infrastructure market: a handful of players, relatively low margin, but very, very high scale, and sort of collecting taxes from everyone in the AI ecosystem. I think the next market is really making tools—the proverbial pickaxes in the gold rush. And I think a lot of companies created prior to large language models like Databricks and Snowflake will sort of be in that category, but a lot of new ones as well. There’s a lot of nuance there. I think that will be a market that can really be threatened by the foundation model companies. I imagine every cloud infrastructure company has some—there’s probably an AWS or Azure equivalent to what they do. And so you end up with a naturally sort of more challenging, but it can be very high scale, but it’s just you definitely are closer to the sun, you know, the closer you are to the models themselves. And then there’s the applied AI market, and I actually think this will manifest its form as agents. So, you know, there’s companies like Harvey that make an agent for the legal profession. There’s companies like Sierra that make it for customer experience. There’s companies that make it for marketing, there’s companies that do it for visual effects. My view is this is sort of the new software as a service. The form factor of purchasing AI will be purchasing an agent that does a job. I think it’s a really exciting time. I assume a lot of folks in this room are working on sort of applied applications in AI. The reason I think it’s exciting are sort of twofold. One is I think it’s the way software should be consumed. I think right now a lot of particularly large enterprises in the excitement after ChatGPT licensed a lot of models. And as we all know, software is like a lawn, you have to tend to it. So I think there’s a lot of buyer’s remorse right now from a lot of spend and a lot of proofs of concept, but not a lot of value. The second thing is I think it changes the markets. You know, there’s these markets where selling enhanced productivity to attorneys is not a huge TAM. And so you run up against just a natural thing. Like, even if you get, you know, 80 percent market share, how big could this company be? But if you’re actually selling antitrust review or something, I don’t know much about the law, so I just made—does this sound credible? [CROSSTALK] Bret Taylor: You know, that has a ton of value because you’re essentially providing something that very high cost labor produced before. And as a consequence, I think if you look at the addressable market of all these vertical specific, domain specific agents, the market is gigantic. And actually it’s interesting, if you look at the public markets, if you look at the top five software companies that dominate the S&P 500, that dominate the stock market, none of them are sort of pure play software as a service companies. Obviously, Microsoft has some enterprise software, Amazon has AWS, but they’re infrastructure companies, they’re consumer. And if you look at the software as a service companies: ServiceNow, Salesforce, SAP, Oracle, they’re all sort of in that sort of $200- to $300-billion market cap range. You wonder, in this new world of agents, will we see our first trillion dollar sort of applied enterprise software company? And I think the answer is yes, because you’re going from selling productivity enhancement to selling outcomes. And outcomes are valuable. Some outcomes are extremely valuable. And so I think there’s been a little—understandably a little too much excitement around the models themselves. Not that—I mean, obviously at OpenAI we’re very excited about it, but as an entrepreneur I think that it’s sort of the pickaxes are obvious, but actually the value is elsewhere in my mind. I think the value is taking this amazing next generation technology, solving a very valuable business problem that was high cost before, and selling something valuable for an order of magnitude less money than the current cost is really fucking easy. So I just think it’s a great business, and I’m super excited about the future of the software industry as a consequence. Outcomes based pricingRavi Gupta: What do you think is the right way to price those outcomes when you think about them, right? I think that there’s all the former seat-based models, right? And now Sierra obviously does it differently. Maybe talk about Sierra’s pricing model, and then also talk about how applicable you think that is or isn’t to other agent companies. Bret Taylor: Yeah, at Sierra we do, we call it outcomes based pricing. So for our median customer, that typically means when the AI agent resolves the issue for the customer autonomously, there’s a pre-negotiated rate for that. And if we do have to escalate to a person, it’s free. We do that just to align with the business model of our customers. And I actually view it as sort of a natural evolution of software. We went from box software with a perpetual license to, you know, once you delivered software in a browser, everyone’s on the same version, so you needed to sort of invent a new business model to sustain R&D, which led to software as a service subscription-based business. And we just thought from first principles and said, “Hey, if you’re selling software that completes a job, what is sort of the secular business model for that?” And it felt like let’s pay for a job well done. You know, salespeople get paid a sales commission. Why not the AI as well? It does really disrupt the way you build a software company in my mind, though. If you look at particularly the enterprise software ecosystem, there tends to be sort of an arm’s-length relationship between software vendors and customers. Typically, you’ll sell a piece of software and be done. Then you’ll have systems integrators come in and spend for large-scale enterprise software deployments, sometimes six months or a year to implement that software. And I mean, by the time the software is being used, the vendor has probably not gone, they’re probably selling more things, but effectively gone for six to twelve months. So as a consequence, there’s almost like an active disassociation with the outcomes. And so you end up with a confluence of, I think, a lot of different factors that I think are interesting. There was a question just before I walked up here about agents that can code. What will that do to the professional services industry broadly? There’s a question of if the right thing for AI software is outcomes, how do you actually align your company with that kind of accountability? I think it sort of blows up a lot of the model. But that’s why, as Steve Jobs said, it’s more fun to be a pirate than it is to be in the navy. And I think it’s a really good time to be a startup, because most people in this room are not encumbered by a business model, which is a funny way of thinking about it. But if you look at the history of software, Salesforce beating Siebel Systems, ServiceNow beating the plethora of ITSM companies that came before, it’s actually much—closing a technology gap in your product is hard, but not impossible. Changing your business model is really hard. And you look at Microsoft transitioning from Windows to Azure, and how incredibly awkward that transition was. And Satya deserves a bunch of credit. Shantanu did a great job at Adobe going to ratable revenue, but there’s like a graveyard of CEOs who’ve been fired because they couldn’t make that transition, in part because public company investors are horribly impatient in these things. And so I just think that what’s exciting about AI is I think it’s going to give rise to new delivery models, new technology models, but as importantly, new business models. And I think that if you think about what are the opportunities for startups relative to incumbents, don’t lose sight of the business models. I actually think it’s usually one of the greatest advantages that startups have relative to incumbents. What’s different about building a company now?Ravi Gupta: Yeah, I think historically speed has been something, but I think on this point it’s like you also have this enormous benefit of you’re not encumbered by the old business model. You referenced the previous companies that you’ve been in and you started. One of the things we’ve talked about is like, there are things that are similar about building a company now and there are things that are different. What are some of the things that are the same as the previous companies that you’ve built that you’re doing now, and what are some of the things that are different? Bret Taylor: Well, at FriendFeed, my-not-so successful social network, we built our own servers. [laughs] Ravi Gupta: Can you tell the story about the Facebook IPO real quick? Just about FriendFeed for everyone, where you got recognized? Bret Taylor: I’ll do that at the end. I’ll do it at the end. Ravi Gupta: All right. It’s a good story. Bret Taylor: It’s a good story. Ravi Gupta: We stand between these people and drinks, man. You gotta make them laugh. Like, let’s go! Hit them with something. Bret Taylor: You’re pulling out the deep cuts. Ravi Gupta: Okay. Bret Taylor: You know, I think a lot has changed just in the infrastructure world. You know, I think literally we built our own servers at FriendFeed and, you know, like, brought them into the colo. We brought our site down once by tripping over a power wire in the colo. Ravi Gupta: [laughs] Bret Taylor: That was Sanjeev’s fault. We love him. So it’s just a different era. You know, I do think it is, as we’ve virtualized infrastructure and built just the software development lifecycle we have today from cloud infrastructure like Azure and Amazon Web Services, to GitHub and GitHub Actions, and all the incredible open source libraries, and then you have sort of the virtual infrastructure to help support your companies like Ramp, you know, and Rippling, you end up where there’s a certain—like, there’s a very different level of focus now in starting a company. It used to be you just had to do all these things to, like, build the scaffolding of your company—and it was actually like a non-trivial amount of work. And the thing I find just so exciting about, like, the future of entrepreneurship is there’s just so little overhead now in terms of just, like, intellectual overhead. And I remember actually just how hard it was to get credit cards for our employees. Like, they had to all get a credit check. I’m like, are you kidding me? It’s our bank account. And now you can print a virtual credit card with things like Ramp. It’s so easy. So I think we’ve just seen every aspect of starting a company that was about sort of like the operational scaffolding infrastructure do so. Many startups that you all have funded are now doing that. And so as a consequence, you can focus on just purely what defines your company and what makes it different. My color commentary on that is I actually think one of the mistakes a lot of smaller companies make is spending their resources and time on things that aren’t core to their business. And it’s more than a hidden cost. I think, like, every ounce of time you’re spending on something that fundamentally should be a commodity to your business is time you’re not spending on, like, selling your product to more customers or, like, working on, like, true differentiation. And it takes a lot of discipline, because a lot of those things are like catnip. You know, it’s like fun to work on that part of your business. And I always like to say, like, you know, Clay, who’s somewhere around here, we always talk about, like, what will make us happy a year from now. And that’s always our metric. And then you could take it to 10 years if you want to be like—no one knows what the hell is going to happen in 10 years, by the way. Ravi Gupta: If you don’t know what’s going to happen in 10 years, nobody knows what’s going to happen in 10 years. Bret Taylor: And I do think it’s very clarifying. And I just think it’s—it always surprises me how much I tend towards some of those things that are, you know, wholly undifferentiated at this point. What incumbents have to doRavi Gupta: Okay. Well, you mentioned some of the companies that Sierra works with, right? And some of those are companies that have been around for a long time, right? They are established companies. What does the “T” in ADT stand for? Bret Taylor: Telegraph. Ravi Gupta: Telegraph. Okay, so how do established companies … Bret Taylor: It’s cool, by the way—home security over telegraph. I actually imagine someone coming to, like, the Sequoia of that day. It’s like, “Home security over telegraph.” Ravi Gupta: [laughs] Bret Taylor: Like YouTube for cats, you know? And they’ve built that business. It really was. And now they’re actually doing home security with AI agents. What a cool privilege. I think it’s awesome. Ravi Gupta: And, you know, it’s a better acronym than ADAI, you know? Okay, but what do they have to do? What are the ones that are going to succeed? What are they going to do in a world of changing technology? And what are the ones that are not going to succeed? What is holding them back? And how can this group help all of those established companies succeed? Bret Taylor: Yeah, so I think it’s a really interesting opportunity for companies in competitive markets like home security, or a company like Sirius XM that’s got incredible unique original content, but they have a lot of cord cutting and a lot of competition around them. You have this technology and AI that drives incredible amounts of productivity in departments that had previously been incredibly underserved by software—everything from large scale contact centers to—we talked about things like legal departments, large operations departments. And as a consequence, companies that lean into this can really change the cost structure of their business. If you think about—I mean there’s companies that have, like, 20,000-person contact centers and, you know, this cost hundreds of millions of dollars every single year. And if you can take all of that OpEx and put it back into your business, you can lower prices, you can invest in growth. And so it’s really interesting. I think it is one of those opportunities where these shovel-ready applications of AI, even if it’s indirect, because it can drive such structural changes to essentially the unit economics of so many companies’ businesses, I think it will change market share. And so I think that it’s a little bit like the birth of the internet, you know? And Walmart did very well since the birth of the browser even in the face of Amazon. There were a lot of retailers like Blockbuster who did not. And so I think because most executives running these companies now lived through the web browser era, saw the birth of the smartphone and saw the growth of things like Instacart and DoorDash and others, they see this and they’re modeling what is the future of our industry going to look like. And you mentioned enterprise sales. I think the key thing about selling anything is speaking the language of your customer and having empathy. I think one of the things I see a lot with entrepreneurs is they’ll go into a meeting and sell their product. If you ever see a really good salesperson, the first thing you’ll see them do is ask a lot of questions. But then the next thing you need to do is actually listen and understand what they’re saying and then reflect the value that your technology provides to the problems that they just described. And I actually think that actually a lot of the technologies in AI will immediately benefit a lot of these businesses, but they’re being pitched by 20 AI vendors every single day, and they all sound the same. They literally all sound the same. You could see, like, the first call deck of startups that do completely different things and there’s, like, the same words on the slides. And so this is the—I think the real opportunity right now is how do you actually stand out in such a saturated market? Clay and I talk a lot about this because we both started web design companies in high school. You know, like, during the dot com bubble. I went door to door to flower shops. He did more, like, graphical things. Ravi Gupta: I think he made a little more money than you did in high school. Bret Taylor: He did. [CROSSTALK] Bret Taylor: He also got sued by the California Raisins, but that’s a whole ’nother story. So true story. His name’s Clay. He named his company Claymation. Bad luck. Sorry, Clay, I didn’t know if this was public. Public now. Love you, man. Ravi Gupta: [laughs] This guy doesn’t know anything about the law. Bret Taylor: Yeah, we talk a lot about the experience that we were young and not in the center of it during the dot com bubble where you didn’t just have Google, you had AltaVista, AlltheWeb. You had Inktomi, which was a B2B search player that we respected quite a bit. You had Amazon.com and you had Buy.com and Half.com, and you had eBay and you had PayPal and all the other folks pursuing payments. I think now, like, victors write the history books, so you look at all these magnificent companies coming out of that era and you forget that it was like a fight to the death. The idea that hey, maybe we should search the internet was not exactly novel, but the actual detailed execution of those ideas was paramount. And I think going back to how do you help companies like ADT succeed, the first thing you need to do is show up as a partner to them and help them solve their acute business problems. And that’s an uncomfortable sort of conversation because I think a lot of people don’t feel equipped to do it. One trick that I would just recommend is before you meet a customer, do deep research on them. And by that I mean the actual feature deep research in ChatGPT. Show up educated in these conversations, and I think you find the more you spend researching your customer and understanding their needs and less time you thinking about the next feature going to launch, the better that conversation will go. And I think you’ll end up finding that sweet spot between, like, where is the intersection of what you do differently and actual business value. Ravi Gupta: That’s awesome. Let’s go to audience questions. I just realized that I’ve taken up a lot of Bret’s time, so please go ahead. Building vertical agentsAudience Member: Thank you. Hi, I’m Robin. What are your learnings in building branded AI agents for specific verticals? And how is it different to building horizontally? Bret Taylor: I really believe in verticals in AI. I think that if you think about what the job proverbially of an AI agent is for a telecommunications company, and you think about what’s important to them versus, say, a commercial bank versus, say, a residential bank versus an insurance company who might be concerned about claims processing versus a health insurance company, that’s answering things like explanation of benefits, every single one of those applications is actually quite specialized. And right now, I think that the companies that can actually provide value quickly around these core workflows of these businesses that are actually valuable to them, actually sort of when I talk about coming into those conversations and actually providing value really quickly, just have a leg up. I am fairly skeptical of horizontal AI platforms. It doesn’t mean they won’t succeed, by the way. There’s always an exception to every rule. But things like LangChain, I think, probably will succeed. They’re open source, and you need to sort of develop a horizontal business in a different way. But just pure play enterprise business, I think it’s very hard to go in with a horizontal platform because there’s just lots of good enough, there’s lots of homegrown solutions, there’s lots of not invented here. And having a slightly better mousetrap is rarely—doesn’t pass the vitamin painkiller threshold, generally speaking. So my rule of thumb is the closer you get to solving a problem for a company, the more successful your business will be, assuming you’re talking about an enterprise business. The other thing that I really learned from Marc Benioff at Salesforce is, like, if you have one successful customer, make it two, and if you have two, make it 10, and if you have 10, make it 100. I do think there’s a certain amount of tactical excellence that comes in when you’re building a B2B software business. And ivory tower cleverness rarely wins. It doesn’t mean you shouldn’t have a long-term strategy, by the way, but if you focus on making your customers successful, that’s where the truth is and where your product should go. Sometimes you can be led astray by that method if you’re like, the first one was not representative. That’s rarely the concern, though. Usually it’s being very, very clever and sort of ivory tower with your strategy. So that’s why I love verticals. Ravi Gupta: Maybe one more. Pricing and the details of the buying cycleAudience Member: Hey Bret, I was really interested in the question around how you price AI agents. Specifically, have you seen customers being more open to you taking a cut of cost savings or of incremental revenue that you’ve created? And what are the main kind of pushbacks that you’re hearing from customers? Because impact pricing has been historically quite hard, so wondering what you’re seeing there. Bret Taylor: Yeah, we see interest in both. You know, if you’re owned by a private equity firm and have a big bunch of debt, you probably say the word EBITDA, like, 20 times a day. It’s like what you do at private equity-owned companies. And you probably care a lot about cost savings. Ravi Gupta: That’s basically all you do. You just walk around, “EBITDA. EBITDA.” He actually really simplified it. He got it. Bret Taylor: It’s like, see, I know finance too. And the law. Ravi Gupta: You have not ever let an ossified version of yourself slow you down. Bret Taylor: And in contrast, if you’re in a very competitive market, like, if you talk to any CEO, they generally care more about growth than they do cost savings. And in fact, I think one of the counterintuitive things—there’s lots of talk about with models becoming cheaper, will demand for infrastructure go down? No, in fact, demand will go up just because new use cases will emerge. I think the same will be true of most cost savings in AI. I think most sophisticated companies will recoup those cost savings and reinvest in growth. And so it won’t actually be cost savings necessarily, it will actually flow to other parts of the business. Just because that’s what capitalism does, right? It’s like saving a lot of money for what reason? Like, you want to grow, you want to beat your competitors. So sort of first principles and our lived experience is that top line matters more. There’s just no doubt about it. And if you can drive a measurable top line outcome, that’s always more valuable. But cost savings do matter because fundamentally, if you look at sort of productivity growth in the world over the past 30 years, it hasn’t been as dramatic as I think many people thought it would be after the ’90s where we saw a huge spike in productivity growth. So fundamentally, just like in the economy, we’re driving efficiency and productivity in the economy. And so the answer is definitely both. The interesting thing about cost savings is I assume those will be compressed over time. You know, right now, most of your AI startups are being compared to the labor costs. Ten years from now, when it’s all AI agents, you’re going to be compared to other AI agents. So the other thing about cost savings is it’s a temporary drug because the costs of actually all these things are going to change because of the presence of technology. So it’s a little bit like your mobile phone plans or—actually, I always think about it as, like, the computers we used to buy growing up in the ‘80s and ‘90s: they would get cheaper and better every single time. And that’s sort of where we are in this AI market. So our view has been, like, figure out what the outcomes are that your customers want. And it really depends on the application, honestly. Even how you price it is interesting. One of my favorite stories—I don’t know if this is actually true, but I heard it, and even if it’s not true, it changed the way I think, which was when LinkedIn was at one point trying to grow the recruiting business, they started out with some usage-based model, but it turns out HR departments don’t have a lot of license to spend in a variable amount, so making it a subscription model just helped with the procurement process. I love that example because it’s a really nuanced and insightful go-to-market point, which is that department, HR is generally a cost center in most companies, unlike marketing departments which have money flowing from the ceiling, this is a department that has to go through a pretty rigorous procurement department. So actually going to a subscription model was necessary to actually sell a product into that department. It’s that type of thing I think is where it’s like, is it cost savings or top line? Yes. Both. But also, like, who are you selling to? How do they buy? Who are the gatekeepers to approving how they spend? That’s how you grow an enterprise software business. You really need to understand who your decision makers are, who’s approving it, and actually, like, how do they budget? And I have a lot of counterintuitive things, but it’s sometimes easier for companies to prepay for things than to pay on demand. Counterintuitive, but just I think that’s like, you really need to get into the details of your buying cycle to answer that in an accurate way. Ravi Gupta: I’m going to wrap us up. Bret, thank you. They say you should do business with people you like, trust and admire. And you are that for me. So I really appreciate you doing this and all of us do as well. Thank you. Bret Taylor: Thank you. [applause] Mentioned in this episodeMentioned in this episode: The dead cat bounce: a small, brief recovery in the price of a declining asset (i.e., “even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height”) <div class="framer-mcvrsd" id="

Recorded live at Sequoia’s AI Ascent 2025: Sierra co-founder Bret Taylor discusses why AI is driving a fundamental shift from subscription-based pricing to outcomes-based models. Learn why this transition is harder for incumbents than startups, why applied AI and vertical specialization represent the biggest opportunities for entrepreneurs and how to position your AI company for success in this new paradigm.

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