No. 96·中文精读

一台机柜400万美元,一年一万亿进场:黄仁勋把AI工厂讲成了一门制造业

LIVE: Jensen Huang on Building the Dynamo of the Intelligence Age

英伟达创始人兼 CEO 黄仁勋谈计算从检索转向生成的六十年最大变革,以及 AI 工厂的角色。

节目音频00:00 / 41:20
中文精读由 AI 基于原始访谈改写,非官方翻译,可能存在偏差或错误;表述以原节目为准。

先看一台机器的参数:72颗芯片装进一个机柜,整机两吨重,150万个零件,单价400万美元,号称地球上最贵的设备。黄仁勋说,英伟达今年要像造手机一样流水线生产它,一年下来大约800万颗芯片。

这是红杉资本播客Training Data的一场现场录制,主持人是红杉合伙人康斯坦丁·布勒,嘉宾是英伟达创始人兼CEO黄仁勋,台下坐着来自60个国家的观众。整场对话,他其实只干了一件事:把AI从玄学拉回车间,当成一门制造业,一笔一笔算账。

总账是这样的:今年一年,市场会有大约1万亿美元流进AI产业链。而他估计,整个智能生态的终局规模是每年20万亿美元。现在才走到第一万亿。

从会聊天,到能干活

黄仁勋先给AI这两年的变化定了个坐标。

两年前的ChatGPT,核心能力是理解和生成。给它一份PDF让它总结,文本变文本;让它把故事画成图,文本变图像;给它一张照片让它讲讲里面有什么,图像变文本。什么都能变成什么,当时大家管这叫生成式AI。

但他提醒,生成式AI真正的价值藏在后面。会生成,才会思考。所谓思考,就是一步步生成内部的想法。生成还带来另一件事:AI能生成指令去操控别的工具,浏览器、表格、Photoshop、AutoCAD。今天操控的是数字工具,哪天操控的是机械,那就叫机器人;操控一台带方向盘的机器,那就叫自动驾驶。

两年过去,AI进入了智能体阶段。你从ChatGPT看到它,从Codex、Claude Code看到它,它能推理,还能干活,能交付结果。

两年前大家都笑ChatGPT,好玩、幼稚、净编胡话。他说都对,但它是后来这一切的地基。

这里他讲了个扎心的观察。

「我们喜欢聪明的朋友,喜欢什么都知道的人,但我们不为他们付钱。我们只为干活的人付钱。」

两年前的AI会写诗、会编乡村歌曲,好看,但不值钱。现在的AI干活了,人们按小时付钱,一小时20美元、30美元,跟雇一个数字员工没区别。黄仁勋管这叫人类历史上增长最快的软件生意。

他还留了道思考题给台下的投资人和创业者:AI能干活了,下游的医疗、金融、制造、物流、零售、广告会跟着发生什么?这是未来十年最值得聊的一批对话。但比下游更值得看的,是上游,AI本身作为一门工业,长什么样。

60年的检索式计算,到头了

第二个视角更狠,他往上游看,看整个计算机工业的家底。

1964年,IBM发布System 360,现代计算机的范式从这台机器定下来,那一年IBM是全球市值最高的公司。此后40年,计算机的基本逻辑几乎没动过:手写程序,存成文件;拍张照片,存成文件;录段音乐,存成文件。要用的时候,从磁盘里取出来。

取得聪明一点的部分,叫推荐系统。但本质上,今天的计算机是一台检索机器。数据中心为什么叫数据中心?黄仁勋的原话很损:因为它们主要在存数据,没干什么计算,所以没人管它们叫计算中心。

AI把这套逻辑掀翻了。每次你跟AI对话,都要给它新的上下文、新的提问,它理解、推理,然后当场生成回答。未来的每一个像素、每一段声音、每一支广告、每一篇新闻,都会为你当场生成。张三看到的和李四看到的,是两个完全不同的版本。

为什么每个人看到的都不一样?因为你的兴趣、你的背景、你是谁、你为什么问、你怎么问,全都不同。生成是照着这些上下文现做的,检索做不到。

生成取代检索,世界就需要海量的生成器。英伟达造的就是这个东西。

接着他打了个比方,把整件事钉死了。19世纪60年代,西门子造出发电机,烧火、推动,另一头冒出一种看不见的力量,当时没人知道那是什么,后来人类叫它电。电织成电网,包裹了整个地球。三十多年前,美国人搞出的网络架构长成了互联网,又包裹了一层。现在是第三层:智能。

「原子进来,电子出去,那是发电机。电子进来,数字出去,那是我们的机器。这些数字重新组合,可以是语言,可以是数学,可以是蛋白质,可以是物理和气候,可以是机器人的动作。我们管它叫token,它就是智能。」

当年那台机器的名字是Dynamo,发电机。这期节目的标题,就叫「建造智能时代的Dynamo」。主持人康斯坦丁总结得很整齐:能源革命靠发电机,通信革命靠交换机,智能革命靠GPU和AI工厂。黄仁勋补了一句,为什么叫工厂,因为它在生产,一小时一小时地产出token,token就是智能。

五层蛋糕,第一万亿美元怎么分

他给了第三套思维模型:把AI产业看成一块五层蛋糕。想投资、想择业,都用这张地图。

先看体量。一个吉瓦的AI工厂,造价大约500亿美元,人类有史以来最贵的工厂。按他的说法,它能产出3000亿到4000亿美元的智能,投资回报快得离谱。主持人接了一句,未来几年有上百个吉瓦级工厂要上马,光基建就是几万亿美元。今年全年,大约1万亿美元会流进这块蛋糕。

五层,从下往上数:

  • 能源层。很多国家的电网建成之后,快一百年没迎来过这种级别的扩建。核电、风电、光伏、氢能,只要能发电,就会拿到钱。他管这叫能源行业几代人一遇的机会,西门子、三菱、GE Vernova生意好,原因在这。
  • 芯片层。芯片、计算机、网络、交换机、硅光子,从H100到最新的Vera Rubin平台,英伟达自己站在这层。
  • 基础设施层。土地、电力、机房、资金、数据中心运营,每一样今天都稀缺。
  • 模型层。OpenAI、Anthropic在这里。但他提醒,别只盯着语言模型。AI能学会任何有结构的东西,蛋白质、基因、细胞、物理定律、气候。他举了个例子,他刚才坐下,100%稳稳落在椅子上,因为物理世界可预测,可预测就有结构,有结构就能学。物理世界那部分产业规模约80万亿美元,才是没人谈论的最大前沿。
  • 应用层。去年1000亿美元风险投资流进这层,人类历史上VC投资最高的一年。金融、法律、会计、物流、交通,创业公司在上面开花。

从计算机的视角看,细胞、蛋白质、单词、图像、汽车,没有区别,全是token。难的是把世界的信息表示成机器能理解、能推理的形式,然后做计划、生成动作,跑通整个智能闭环。

他的判断是:智能会变成像电力一样的商品。剩下的问题只有三个:智能有多重要?谁需要它?你要多少?

还有一层想象空间在智能体。今天全球大约10亿人在用AI。一旦AI能自己干活,智能体就会跟智能体组队。黄仁勋说,英伟达内部此刻大概跑着几十万个智能体,有护栏、有沙箱,互相说话、互相派活。自动驾驶汽车是智能体,机器人是智能体,工厂和楼宇都会是智能体。未来的互联网,主体可能从几十亿人变成上千亿个智能体,全天候在线,互相生成指令和想法。

听起来夸张,但他说这事已经发生过两次了,电网一次,互联网一次。智能是第三次包裹地球。

放射科医生的故事:任务和目的是两回事

现场有人问,普通人怎么参与这场革命。黄仁勋没直接答,先讲了个故事。

十年前,一位全球顶级的计算机科学家公开警告:AI第一个消灭的职业是放射科,劝所有人别入行。这个人就是辛顿,2016年他确实说过,医院应该停止培训放射科医生。他的依据很硬:计算机视觉早在12年前就有超人能力,识别影像、发现病灶,不累,不漏细节。

结果呢?他说对了一半。计算机视觉确实渗透了放射科的每一个环节,今天每一位放射科医生都被它增强。

但放射科的需求涨了,放射科医生的数量也涨了。

为什么?黄仁勋让现场观众猜。答案是:放射科医生的工作目的,从来都是配合临床医生诊断疾病,读片只是任务。任务自动化之后,医生效率变高,更多病人被收进医院,拍更多片子,科室更赚钱,于是招更多医生,收更多病人,治更多人。医院外面还有一堆病人在排队等着进来。

更讽刺的是后续。那次警告传开之后,想学放射科的年轻人真的变少了。可社会明明需要更多放射科医生。黄仁勋说,我们必须对随口编造的预言负责,因为它真的会伤害人。

同样的剧本在程序员身上重演。最近有人说,90%的代码要消失,软件工程师不需要了。与此同时,英伟达招的工程师比任何时候都多。他的解释是:写代码从来都只是任务,工程师的目的是解决问题,以及想出值得解决的问题。他从来没招过一个人,然后只考核打字速度。

他自己也逃不掉这个框架。CEO的任务是什么?打字和说话。这两件事AI都干得超人级别。可他比任何时候都忙。

所以他的结论是:AI不会消灭工作,AI会抬高工作。关键看你想清楚自己的任务和目的。水管工明天可能就是设计师,用AI出厨房效果图;卖家具的明天可能就是室内设计师。手艺被抬高了,从执行者变成了出主意的人。

别怕终结者,怕的是会用AI的同事

谈到那些吓人的说法,终结者、奇点、20%概率毁灭人类,黄仁勋当场开炮:完全是胡说八道。

「如果你不知道一个东西怎么运作,你怎么可能每年都把它做得更好?它每年都在变好,所以他们当然知道它怎么运作。它就是计算机,就是软件。」

安全这件事,他的证据是拿来用的体验。两年前的ChatGPT幻觉不断,今天的模型会查资料、会自我质疑、会给出几个答案再反思一遍才开口。他的类比是汽车:今天的车比100年前的车技术复杂得多,也安全得多,安全本身就是技术进步的产物。

他真正担心的是另一件事。干了40多年芯片设计,他看着计算机越来越复杂,会编程的人占总人口的比例越来越低。现场举手,会C++的大概2%。现在呢?会说人话就会编程。AI是他职业生涯里见过的、消除技术鸿沟的最大力量。

所以他对恐惧的回答只有一句:你可能会把工作丢给AI,但你一定会把工作丢给会用AI的人。担心之前,先把AI用起来。这句话他在台上讲了两遍,一遍说给自己,一遍说给台下有孩子的父母:给孩子的建议很简单,去用那个给人超能力的东西。

「如果我们认为它是超能力,就去用它。我们不用,别人会用。」

明天就能用的三件事

听完这一小时,能带走的东西其实很具体。

  • 用「任务和目的」给自己的工作做个体检。列一张清单,左边写任务,回邮件、做图、查资料、写初稿,右边写目的,判断、定义问题、维护关系。把左边的尽量交给AI,省下来的时间全部投给右边。放射科的故事已经把结局演完了:被增强的人拿走了增长,躲开的人连入场券都没摸到。
  • 用五层蛋糕给自己定位。做投资的,问自己钱该压在哪一层,第三层的土地、电力、机房运营眼下样样稀缺;找工作的,想想自己的手艺贴着哪一层,那层的稀缺技能是什么。黄仁勋给的坐标是,今年进场1万亿美元,终局是每年20万亿,现在不管站在哪层都算早。
  • 今天就装上一个AI,把它当员工用。按小时计价的心态,一小时20美元、30美元,让它真干活,交付结果。别再用「试试看」的心态聊两句就关掉。另外,家里有孩子的,教会他们说人话就是编程,这件事的门槛已经降到了零。

黄仁勋在节目最后说,AI这件事没那么难理解。160多年前人类学会把原子变成电子,现在人类学会把电子变成数字,数字就是智能。剩下的问题只有一个:你要多少。

文稿来源:Megaphone 音频 + Whisper 转写;机器转写可能有识别错误,人名与数字请以音频为准。
Thank you so much, Jensen. So we are in the middle of a massive AI revolution. It is probably bigger and faster than even the Industrial Revolution. And you have called out what's happening right now as the largest infrastructure buildout in human history. At the center of that buildout is the AI factory. And the company enabling all of that is NVIDIA. Can you tell us what is an AI factory and why is it the best investment for any enterprise in the next decade? Okay, so you could understand AI in a particular number of ways. The way that you understand AI probably most is through a chatbot, through a web browser. You're interacting with it. You give it a prompt. It says something back to you. And even those of you who have been using AI for some time, you've seen in the last couple, two, three years, a very significant evolution, improvement in the capabilities of AI. Two years ago, you heard about ChatGPT. And ChatGPT basically is a computer software that understands the input you give it. It can perceive, understand information. And it can translate and generate the information into something else. Okay, so you can give it a prompt and you can say, here's this PDF I gave you. I would like you now to summarize it. It went from text to text. You could also tell it, here's a PDF I gave you. I would like you to now generate an image of that story. It goes text to image. You could use go from image to text, meaning you could give it a picture and you can what's happening inside this picture. It goes text, image to text. Does that make sense? Anything to anything else. And AI in the last, in two years time, two years ago, was largely able to do this translation. We call it generation, generative models. Okay, generative AI. But the thing that is very big deal inside that word generative AI is in order to do something even more valuable than generation, understanding and generating is thinking. Well, you can't think if you don't generate words. And so the foundation of generative AI gave us the ability to generate internal thoughts, thinking, reasoning, step-by-step reasoning, problem solving. It also allowed us to do another thing that is now very important, which is generate intelligence to control something else, to generate control to use a tool. Does it make sense? To use a browser, use a spreadsheet, use Photoshop, use PowerPoint, use something, use AutoCAD, use another tool. Now, that tool today is digital, but someday that tool will be mechanical. So if I generate a command to a mechanical system, that would be called robotics. If I generate commands for a machine with steering wheel, that would be called self-driving cars. Does that make sense? Okay. And so two years ago, two years ago, in fact, you saw the foundations, we call it ChatGPT, and everybody said, ah, you know, it's fun, it's silly, or it produced a whole bunch of crazy hallucinated text. That's all true, but it was the foundational technology that led to all of this. Two years later, we now have agentic systems. Now, that's one view of AI. I just described the view, which is what can AI do, right? And so now all of you realize you see it from ChatGPT, you see it from Codex, you see it from CloudCode. You see that it's now able to not just understand, but it's able to do work. Reason and do work. Now, two years ago, when AI was able to understand you and generate information that was interesting, novel, a little cute, whenever you need a poem written, great way to do it, right? Who doesn't want to write a country song? And so that was two years ago. But now, because it's able to do work, AI is valuable. Valuable meaning it can generate information, it can generate useful work, and it could be paid for it. Because we pay for, we're interested in having friends that are smart. We love people who are know-it-alls, but we don't pay them for it. We pay for people who do work. Does that make sense? All right, which is what happened in the last two years. AI went from having this capability to now, Agentech went from not very valuable to now producing useful work. So much useful work that you and I are doing this every day. We're paying AI by the hour, right? And so we might pay them $30 an hour to do the work, $20 an hour to do the work. We're basically paying AI a lot of money today, the fastest growing software business in the history of mankind. Because now it's doing useful work and we can pay them to do it. Now, that's one view of AI, which is what it can do. But one other view of AI that's really important to help reason through what Constantine is saying. So, for example, the reason why some companies, some people are able to build great businesses and could maneuver themselves into the center of very large industries is because when they see this capability, this is very interesting. One interesting thought is if we're able to do this, what is the implication to this downstream industries? That's an interesting conversation we should have. Okay? So now that AI can do this, what happens to all the industries like health care and financial services and life sciences, manufacturing, logistics, transportation, on and on and on? Now, retail, advertising, future entertainment, the list of conversations you can have about now that AI can do this, what can it do as a result subsequently? That's an interesting conversation. But you should go upstream, meaning industrially, what does that mean? And so the first thing you realize is this. Go back to first principles. I had told you just now that AI is software and it's being produced by a computer. Now, what happened to the computer that has made it possible to do this? Well, the big idea is about, if you think about the computer as we know it today, really emerged about 64 years ago. IBM System 360 was the biggest announcement of computing. And 64 years ago, IBM was the most valuable company in the world. Okay? And they created the modern understanding of computers. Everything that we can describe about a computer was really described in 1964. For 60, for 40 years, largely has remained the same. And what happened was, what happened was, that form of computing is called pre-recording. You write down your story, you save it to a file. You write a program by hand, you save it to a file. You take a picture, you save it to a file. You record music, you save it to a file. You make a video right now. We're streaming right now, but somebody's going to record it. You're going to save it to a file. And when you want to use it later, you retrieve it from the disk drive. Does that make sense? And the retrieval process is done intelligently. So that's why everybody's retrieval of a news story is a little bit different. It's called a recommender system. But basically, computers as we know it today is a retrieval-based system, which is the reason why these buildings are called data centers. They store data. Notice they don't call them computer centers because they're not doing much computing. They just store data that you retrieve based on what you touch on your phone. Well, what happened now, if you look at what I just described, in order for this AI to work as I described it, every time I say something to it, I have to give it new information. We call it context. I give it a new prompt. That's called a query. Between the context and the query, it will understand it first, reason about it, and it will produce an output based on that context and that query, based on the circumstance. Does that make sense so far? Okay, give me one nod. Okay? And so, if that is the case, every time you use the AI, the content is produced originally every single time. Everything I'm saying to you right now is being produced in real time. And it's because my explanation is based on the fact that I realize all of you come from 60 different countries, 128 different families. You all have many different backgrounds. Some of you probably came from the computer industry. Most of you probably did not. And so, I'm explaining the information to you in a way that is sufficiently deep. But ultimately, my goal is this. So that you know how to make your next investment. That's what I'm leading to. And so, I'm going to give you enough sufficient information that you can reason about it for yourself so that when you see something in the next time, you go, that's worth investing in. That's going to be a big industry. That's $100 billion right now. And it looks really big, but that's nothing compared to how big it's going to be. I'm going to give you the intuition to solve that problem. Okay? And so, here we are. Went from a computer industry that was largely based on retrieval for 60 years. And all of a sudden, one day, it's completely generated in real time. We call it intelligence. This is what I'm doing right now for you. I'm demonstrating intelligence. Contextual awareness. He gave me a prompt. And here comes my answer. Does that make sense? Extreme intelligence. Extremely artificial intelligence. Okay? And so, what's going on now? I just gave you one word earlier. It's called generative AI. The computer of today has been completely reinvented. It's now generative. And every single letter you see, every single word you see in the future, every video, every image, every ad, every TV commercial, every single time you read a story, a news story, every one of them will be different. What Constantine sees, what I see, what you see, will be completely different because it will be generated for you. Because your interest, your context, who you are, for what reason you asked, how you asked, is completely different. Does it make sense? And so, therefore, therefore, every single pixel that you see, every single sound that you hear in the future, every video you see in the future will be originally generated, not retrieved. Which means, in the future, we need a lot more generators. And these generators is what we build. That's what we build for a living. These are large computers, and they're generating intelligence. Now the next question is this. Well, how big could it be? How big can it be? And so it turns out, it turns out, the amount of information, the amount of generation of intelligence is, we do it for about a billion people in the world today. Now that I've told you that AI has become agentic, meaning that it can actually do work by itself. Well, if it can do work by itself, then one agent can communicate with another agent and say, I have some work to do. Let's team up together, and let's do some work. And now you have all these different agents, and they're all working together to solve problems inside your company, say. So inside our company, Constantine knows that we're huge users of agentic AI. We have hundreds of thousands of agents probably running around right now that are doing work, and they're talking to each other, and they're solving problems. All guardrailed, all sandboxed, all guardrailed and sandboxed, but they're all working with each other. Which means in the future, it is very likely that the internet that we use today for a billion people will likely mostly be several billion, call it 100 billion agents, working around the clock. And they're using the internet and talking to each other. And what are they saying? So for example, there'll be companies working with companies, employees' agents working with other employees' agents. There'll be self-driving cars, which are agentic. There'll be robots, which are agentic. All the manufacturing systems, every building will be agentic. There'll be agents all over the place, and they'll be using the internet. And all of those commands that they generate to each other will be generated. All of the thoughts that they have to understand, all generated. Does that make sense? And so basically the world is going to be this layer of computing that's going to cocoon the earth, and it's going to be generating intelligence all the time. Now, I just said something that sounds ridiculous. Except, in fact, it's already happened. Twice. Twice. So 300 years ago, a company in Germany called Siemens produced a machine. And this machine is a really interesting machine. You go up to this machine, you light it on fire. And then this incredible invisible force comes out the other end. Nobody understood what it was. We understand it now as electricity. How many power generators are there in the world? We call it a grid. Power generation cocoons the planet. We call it the grid. And then, of course, 20-some-odd years ago, earlier than that, 35 years ago, this networking scheme, networking matrix, fabric was created here in the United States. Eventually became the internet. And where is it? It cocoons the world. And so now you have energy, communications, intelligence, and it will cocoon the world. And we'll use it for, you know, it'll just be a commodity and we'll use it all over the place. And so what NVIDIA does for a living is this new machine. The machine that was invented 300 years ago is called the Dynamo. That Dynamo, anything that moves comes in. It could be, you know, waterfalls. It could be wind, fire, steam. Transfer it from motion, atoms, right, to electrons. Atoms to electrons. We then take the electrons into our machine called NVIDIA. Electrons now comes into our machine, comes in this factory, and what comes out are numbers. These numbers, depending on how you combine them, turns into language, math. It can also turn into a new language we've learned, proteins. We learned the language of human biology. We learned the language of the physical world, physics, climate, weather. We learned the language of the 3D world, robotics, self-driving cars. We learned the language of all kinds of different forms of intelligence. But the point being, now, these two machines, 300 years apart, atoms in, electrons out, electrons in, numbers out. And those numbers could be rejiggered, reformulated into all kinds of different intelligence. That's what we built, that's what we do for a living. And that's why I call it a factory, because it's producing. We call them tokens, but they're just numbers. Tokens, and these tokens are intelligence. That's it. That's what we do. It's not that hard. Brilliant. Now you know what AI is for, and now you know how AI is built, and how big it's going to be. Thank you all for joining today. Thank you. Good job. Excellent question. I really felt that carried it, the prompt. You laid it up. Okay, so this is a massive revolution. Yeah. And you laid out three transformations. Energy transformation, which touches everyone today. And a lot of the people in the audience are part of these manufacturing and energy producers globally. Telecommunications, which connects all of us. And now intelligence. And in energy, you talked about the generator. Telecommunications, I guess the comparable would be the switch or something along those lines for routing communications globally. And now in the intelligence revolution, it's the GPU at the core. And the AI factory, like the H100, or any of the new systems that bring everything you need under the same hood. Vera Rubin, what happens. And these factories, so you know, these generators, it's each one of our units, we call it a rack. There's 72 chips inside. We manufacture, call it 8 million of them this year. But 72 of them go into a rack. That rack weighs two tons. It is $4 million. Has 1.5 million parts. And it's the most expensive piece of equipment in the world. And we manufacture them like, I guess it would be like phones. I mean, we crank them out. And they go into data centers all over the world. And yeah. We build these machines in volume. They are big devices. This is how you do your weightlifting. Yes. I understand. No volume discounts. Okay. So you laid out this picture of a very exciting world that we are in. We're in the middle of this revolution. We're, you could say, decades in. You could say years in. Certainly now in the mainstream of the intelligence revolution. How do we participate? I'm sure everybody here wants to participate in this revolution. Yeah. Excellent question. Let's start with big enterprises. And then let's get to individuals as well. Yep. How do people join this movement? And so now I gave you two mental models. I'm going to give you one more mental model. So one mental model. They're really, you know, we could talk about this story and hopefully we cover all four phases. I just talked about what AI can do. I talked about how AI is made. And these things are in these factories. These factories are, you know, each gigawatt is about $50 billion. So have you ever seen it's the most expensive factory in the world? But it also, that $150 billion factory also generates $300, $400 billion in intelligence. And so the production value is incredible. Okay. The return on investment is extremely fast. And so these, so that's the factory part. The part that I'm going to tell you now, and this is very important when you think about investment, is what does the industrial layout look like for AI? And the way to think about the industrial view is think of it as a five-layer cake. Now, I told you on the bottom is energy. The bottom is, remember I said the dynamo. Okay. Now we have, of course, different AC generators and things like that, power generation. And so on the lowest layer is energy. This is the single greatest opportunity in several generations for the energy industries to grow. The very first time in probably, I don't know, 100 years since the energy grid in many countries could be invested in, this is the best opportunity to invest in sustainable energy. If you care about sustainable energy, nuclear, air, you know, or wind, solar, you name it, whatever form, hydrogen, whatever form, so long as it produces energy, it's going to get funded. And so that tells you something about how great of a time this is because we have a trillion dollars. Just think, this one year, this year alone, we're going to put a trillion dollars from the market into this entire five-layer cake. I'm about to describe you. So the first layer is energy. That's the reason why Siemens is doing so well. That's Mitsubishi is doing fantastically. GE, Vernova. I mean, everybody. The first layer of the cake is energy. The second layer of the cake is chips and computers and networking and switches and silicon photonics. Does that make sense? It's all the computers. The third layer of the cake, we call it infrastructure. Land, power, shell, money, data center operations. Every one of them is scarce to apply today. And so that's the next layer. It's the infrastructure layer. And then the layer that everybody sees, that everybody thinks is AI, is the model layer. Does it make sense? That's the next layer. It sits on top of the computers, the cloud infrastructure. And this is the greatest opportunity in recent human history that I know, that so much market-driven investment is naturally coming into the ecosystem. This is a great time to build. And so now that's the model layer. The model layer is OpenAI. It's anthropic. But this is the part that you can't overlook. This is very important. So you have two companies that you know of, that you hear about. However, don't forget, AI, as I was explaining earlier, has learned the language. It learns the language and the meaning. The language, the meaning of anything that is structural. So that layer, what's really important is that we hear, we talk about all the language. But don't forget, you can learn anything with structure. And so let me give you an example of something with structure. Today, when I walked into a room, I was explaining a lot of people. And it wasn't unexpected the way you appeared. Now, if some of you were hanging off the ceiling and floating in midair, and some of you, you know, the one human but body parts in 17 different places, and I could see through some of you, then it's hard to learn that. Because every time it's different. Okay? Because it's hard to learn quantum things. However, things with structure, we can learn. Right? People have eyes, and so you can learn these things. Okay? And so 3D, I learned the laws of physics. I sat down. And notice, I sat down with confidence. I wasn't, I wasn't 50%, 53% of the time, I landed safely on the chair. The other 47% of the time, I went right through it. And so I can't trust it, but 100% of the time. Do you guys understand? And so if things are predictable, and are predictable, then there's structure you can learn from it, and you can learn the meaning of it. Okay? And so we learned the meaning of protein. We learned the meaning, we're learning the meaning of genes. Not just sequencing it, not just CRISPR editing it, but what is the meaning of that gene? What is the meaning of a cell? Why does a cell do what a cell does? What happens when two cells come together? And so this is no different than, imagine I learned the meaning of a cell the way I learned the meaning of a word. And what happens when I take two words, put them together? These two words activate each other, turn into something else of another meaning. Okay? And so from a computer's perspective, it doesn't care if it's a cell, a protein, a word, an image, a car. Does that make sense? It's just tokens. And so we have to figure out as computer scientists, we have to figure out how to represent the world's information in all these different ways so that the computer can understand it, understand it, reason about it, come up with a plan, generate an action, the intelligence loop. Protein's the same way, cell's the same way, the human anatomy's the same way. It must be predictable. It's predictable because tomorrow morning I'm largely the same. It must be predictable. Okay? And so we're learning all these different, my point is there are two language models that you guys know about, but AI is a giant industry. The industry of everything else physical is about $80 trillion. It is actually, you know, the most important frontier, the parts that we're not talking about. And then on top of that, this model, this technology then feeds into all the stuff that Constantine gets to see these days, which is all of these startups that are coming up with revolutionary ideas in financial services, in legal, in accounting, in transportation, logistics, isn't that right? And so that layer above, this last year, $100 billion of venture capital investment, the single largest year of VC investment in the history of humanity. All of that money is going into that fifth layer, the top layer, which is the layer that apply applications to enhance human condition. And so there are five layers. When you think about AI and you want to invest in this future, and I promise you this future is going to be gigantic because two years ago, zero. It's approximately, we're about to put $1 trillion in, but that's $1 trillion out of the, you know, we're going to be putting in probably the AI industry. I'm going to guess for a second, probably something along the lines of $20 trillion a year. We're $1 trillion in of a $20 trillion a year ecosystem. Because the production of intelligence, you just got to ask yourself, how important is intelligence? And who needs it? And how much of it do you want? And so those are kind of the basic questions. And all of that intelligence, whether it's for proteins or cars or robots or language or math, science, whatever it is, has to be generated by these machines. And so this five-layer cake is the industrial version. And I think that's a good way to think about where to invest. Hugely so. So you've described what is a multi-trillion dollar opportunity to become part of this revolution. And that includes the hardware and the facilities, if it's $50 billion for a gigawatt and there's 100 plus coming online in the next several years, that is trillions plus the application layer where that is many, many more trillions, plus, plus, plus. And that means real jobs for people doing the hands in building. And then also... Right now, exactly. And we have to really emphasize this. And this is very important to you. Every country has a different attitude about AI today. Would you guys agree with that? Every country. Because everybody's culture is a little different. Okay? And here's my recommendation. Be careful with the analogies and the science fiction stories that this is Terminator and words like singularity and ideas that somebody say, in 20% chance this will be the end of humanity as we know it. Okay? Those kind of articulations of AI is just nonsense. It is complete nonsense. Oh, we have no idea how it works. This is so mysterious. We don't even know how it works. It might just get up out of its seat and walk out tomorrow morning. There's no question in my mind it's computer and software. And there's no question in my mind they know how it works. And do you know how they know how it works? Because every single year apparently it's getting better. If you don't know how something works, how do you make it better? I have no idea how it works. But I know how to make it better. That's nonsense. So why are they saying these things? That's an interesting question. However, don't let it scare you. You must engage it. You may or may not lose a job to an AI. But you will absolutely lose a job to someone who uses AI. Would you agree with that? Okay. So let's not worry about the things you're not sure about and focus on the things that you are sure about. I am absolutely certain I will lose my job to someone who uses AI. So before I worry about AI, let's just go make sure I use AI. And so the part that... Now, why is that common sense so important for me to tell you? Because some of you have children. What are you advising them? Run away? Or make sure whatever this technology is that gives people superpowers, that you go make sure you use it. So I'm hoping that we do two things. One, we are and we're doing everything we can to build this technology safely for the world. I promise you, so much computer science, so much investment, so much passion, dedicated to making this technology safe for everybody to use. And I can prove it. Use ChatGP2 two years ago and use it again. Again, the amount of hallucination completely reduced to almost nothing. To the point where it's producing knowledge, not only accurately, contextually relevant, relevant to the moment. And if it doesn't know the answer, it does research. And when it comes up with an answer, it even questions itself. Before it tells you an answer, it reflects on it. And it comes up with two or three different answers, and it reflects on those. Before it produces the answer for you. The amount of safety and guard railing, grounding of truth, the technology advanced so fast to make it safe. I am certain I can tell you this completely with fact. I prefer my car today than the car that was 100 years ago. The technology is a lot better, but it's a lot safer. And it takes a lot of technology to be invented in order for it to be safe. And so I can tell you that it is our job. It is the responsibility of the technology industry, the responsibility of scientists and engineers for us to build AI safely. Two, it is your responsibility to make sure that you tell the people that you love, whether it's your family, your kids, your grandkids, or the company you work for, or the country that you're in. Whatever we do, engage AI. If we think it's a superpower, engage it. Because if we don't engage it, somebody else will. We're not going to lose our lives to AI. We're going to lose our lives to somebody who uses AI. And so that's my... Well, that's too serious. That's the... That's too serious. That was because he said the word job. So I've got a trigger. And the trigger is a bunch of people making stuff up about jobs. We put a trillion dollars into the world's ecosystem this year, did we not? What's it doing? Making jobs. Right now, the energy sector, more jobs than ever. The chip sector, more jobs than ever. Infrastructure layer, more jobs than ever. Everything from land, power, shell, finances. AI model layer, more jobs than ever. And we just said $100 billion. Last year, it went into the upper layer. More jobs than ever. We're creating so many more jobs. Now, somebody might say, well, what about the traditional jobs? So let me give you the example. You know that everybody's job and their task is related not the same. A job and the task you do in the job is related not the same. So for example, my job is to be the CEO, to lead the company. Most of the time, and I spent a lot of it today, most of my time, my task is typing and talking. And so you could say CEO equals typing and talking. Both of them, AI does in a superhuman way. And I'm busier than ever. And I'm giving you that. Of course, that's a really cute example. But let me give you a more deep example, and you can now apply it. So 10 years ago, slightly more than that, one of the world's leading computer scientists wanted to warn everybody about the power of AI. And so he said, and Constantine probably knows who it is. He said, the first job that AI will destroy and eliminate, and I advise nobody goes into this field because this field will be wiped out. Radiology. Is radiology. Computer vision is superhuman already 12 years ago. Computer vision. A computer can recognize images, detect anomalies with superhuman capability, never gets tired, never miss a detail. 12 years ago, it was able to do that. And he predicted as a result of that, radiology is going to be wiped out. Well, he was absolutely right. Radiology was completely penetrated by computer vision. Computer vision proliferated through every single form of radiology, and every radiology stack, and every radiologist today is augmented by computer vision. However, the interesting thing is this. Radiology demand went up. The number of radiologists in the world went up. Why? Audience participation, please. Why? I heard some of the things. It's all true. It turns out, radiology spends a lot of time studying scans. But the purpose of the radiology, the purpose of the radiologist, is to work with doctors to diagnose disease. To work with doctors to diagnose disease. And, because it's now automated, they are more productive. So two things happen. More patients are admitted into the hospital. They do more scans. The radiology department became more profitable. When they realized they were more profitable, and they were admitting more patients, they hired more radiologists, so that they could admit more patients, so that they could make more money, take care of more people. Because, as it turns out, there are a lot of people who are suffering. And they're waiting to get into the hospital. So now, let's pretend for a second do you appreciate the computer scientists tell you it's going to be the end of the world for radiologists. My point is, we have to be responsible about what we make up. Because we could have done harm. And it turns out, the number of people who want to be radiologists after his speech, because it permeated through everything, the number of radiologists started to decline. But we need more radiologists. Now, somebody recently said, 90% of software coding will be gone. And therefore, we don't need software engineers. Meanwhile, we're hiring more software engineers than ever. And the reason for that is because a software engineer's job is to solve problems and dream up problems to solve. Innovate. I never hired somebody and said, hey, guess what? You're a software engineer. Listen. Here's a keyboard. Show me how many words a second you can type. Typing is not the job of a software engineer. Coding is not their job. Solving problems is their job. And so I just gave you two examples. Task versus purpose. Does that make sense? It turns out, this example happens all over the place. But because we have such a contrived, such a naive understanding, that computer scientists could say things like, 50% of the jobs will be gone. Software coding is completely irrelevant. Radiology is going to be wiped out. Because we think about it from the task perspective, we forgot the purpose of the job. There were radiologists before. There were workstations. There are going to be radiologists after AI. There were engineers before software coding. I promise you that. There will be engineers after. Does that make sense? And so that's the way to think about jobs. And I've now covered two things. One, if your country is not investing in AI, there's a massive boom of jobs that you're missing out on. If your country or your company is not investing in AI, there's a level of elevation of your people that you're missing out on. AI is not going to eliminate jobs. AI is going to elevate your job. If I were a plumber today, largely I get a job task sheet or a schematic. However, if I'm a plumber tomorrow, it is very likely I'm a designer as well. Does that make sense? Because you and I both know that we could just use AI to generate these incredible designs of a kitchen. If I'm a carpenter, if I were a salesperson of furniture, I'm going to be an interior designer for sure. And so I've elevated my craft. Went from somebody who sells furniture to somebody who could advise you on how beautiful your home could be. I went from somebody who's a carpenter. You expected me to come and just, you know, put some wood together. And now I'm your home designer. I've elevated my craft. I've given you so many examples, but that's my point. I think the narrative about AI is absolutely wrong. And the goal is to scare everybody out of it so that some people could benefit from it. But AI, as you know, is the greatest force for eliminating the technology divide in my entire career. I spent 40 some odd years, my entire life has been in computer design. I spent 40 some odd years and this entire time, the technology we created became more and more and more and more complex. And the number of people who could program these computers as a percentage of population declined. Who in this room knows C++? Come on, cut it out, you weirdos. This row is just, it's a startup company. Okay, and so this row, okay, so we're looking at 2%, okay? 2%, and this is a very strange room. This is a very strange room. And so 2% of society knows C++. How many people know human? Okay, more than 2%. And so everybody now can program a computer and yet in the past only 2% can. We have closed the technology divide. We gotta bring everybody with us. Does that make sense? Okay, anyways, that's it. On a Friday night, that's too serious. That is extremely optimistic. And I agree. And it's great to hear from someone who is closer to actual building of the actual technology that powers everything than anyone else in the world. So Jensen, you talked about a future where we move from retrieval, this paradigm that we've had our entire lives in, to generation, where everything is customized, knowledge is customized for the individual, a world where we have the generation of intelligence, paralleling from the energy to the telecommunications revolution to now the intelligence revolution. You talked about these languages that the computer can speak, not just English or German, but even protein. You talked about five layers of participation, an abundant opportunity to participate in this revolution for everyone in this room and everyone listening. And you talked about how this transformation is going to be something that has real consequences, real consequences that allow people to move from just doing the task to dreaming the problems and the solutions, maybe even a life of purpose and a life where we move from carpenters to architects. Thank you, Jensen. Please join me in thanking Jensen Huang, the man who made the show happen. Thank you. Thank you so much. You're welcome. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of NVIDIA, makes the case that computing is undergoing its biggest shift in 60 years: from retrieval, where data centers store files we look up, to generation, where every word, image, and video is produced in real time and customized for whoever is asking. He explains why NVIDIA's AI factories are the dynamos of this era: machines that take in electrons and send out tokens of intelligence, just as Siemens' dynamo once turned motion into electricity. Jensen frames intelligence as the third force to "cocoon" the planet after electricity and the internet. He describes the five-layer cake of AI investment—energy, chips, infrastructure, models, applications—and dismantles the fear that AI will erase jobs, using radiology and software engineering to show how automation raised labor demand instead of killing it. His bottom line: you won't lose your job to AI, but you might lose it to someone who uses AI.

Hosted by Konstantine Buhler, Sequoia Capital

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