No. 8·中文精读

1.6万张GPU训练的405B免费送人,Meta高管把这笔账算透了

Meta’s Joe Spisak on Llama 3.1 405B and the Democratization of Frontier Models

Meta 生成式 AI 产品管理负责人 Joe Spisak 在 Llama 3.1 405B 发布两天后,谈新模型的能力、规模扩展与开源在 AI 生态中的角色。

节目音频00:00 / 42:07
中文精读由 AI 基于原始访谈改写,非官方翻译,可能存在偏差或错误;表述以原节目为准。

发布 Llama 3.1 405B 两天后,Meta 生成式 AI 产品总监 Joe Spisak 坐进了红杉资本播客 Training Data 的录音间。这个模型预训练吃掉超过 15 万亿 token,训练时同时调度 1.6 万多张 GPU,而任何人都能免费下载权重,甚至可以拿它的输出去训练自己的模型。

烧钱最多的一代模型,Meta 决定不直接靠它赚一分钱。这期节目把这笔账算得相当透。

405B 最大的价值,是给小模型当老师

Joe 管 405B 叫「怪物」,但他反复强调的角色另有一个:老师。大模型真正的用武之地,是蒸馏出更强的小模型。8B 和 70B 之所以能打,正是因为吃了 405B 产出的数据。

今年 4 月 Meta 先放了 8B 和 70B,内部管它们叫「开胃菜」。当时 Joe 自己都犯嘀咕,怀疑大家会不会真那么兴奋,结果反响爆了,真正的正餐憋到了 7 月。

开胃菜本身就有个惊人的事实:8B 的成绩比 Llama 2 的 70B 高出一大截。Joe 看到图表第一反应是「这数据是不是搞错了」,核对之后确认属实。原因很朴素:训练数据多了 7 倍,算力也堆得更足。

新能力里他最兴奋的是零样本工具调用。模型不用专门训练就能调 Wolfram、Brave 搜索、Google 搜索,还能跑代码解释器、给 RAG 这类任务写插件。长上下文是社区呼声最高的需求,内部版本其实比放出来的更长。多语言这件事他们也没偷懒,没有只靠预训练堆数据,监督微调阶段针对各语言做了大量后训练和安全工作。

许可证也动了。以前用闭源模型的输出训练新模型,用户自己都拿不准合不合规,总有层灰色的感觉。这次 Meta 干脆明说:欢迎拿 405B 的输出做蒸馏和合成数据。Joe 透露,这个决定是和扎克伯格开了很多次会才敲定的。斯坦福的 Percy Liang 隔三差五发消息催他放模型,社区等这套东西等得太久了。英伟达和 AWS 已经跟上,做起了蒸馏配方和合成数据生成服务。

Meta 图什么

红杉的 Sonya Huang 问得很直接:扎克伯格那篇宣言我读了,但 Meta 到底图什么?最先进的模型白送,等于把桌上的钱推开了。

Joe 的回答从商业模式说起。Meta 不卖云服务,从来没当过云厂商,模型本身不直接产生收入。他此前带了五年 PyTorch,那段经历给出的答案是:创新发生在社区里,新架构、新模型每周都在冒出来,别人用 PyTorch 发的代码,Meta 内部拿过来就能评估、能用,Hateful Memes 那批数据集就是靠社区一周一周往上抬的。开放是一座桥,把全世界的创新接到自己手里。

落到 Llama 上,好处具体是三件事。

  • 安全。学术界和公司去红队测试、去越狱 Llama,Meta 巴不得大家这么干,漏洞暴露得越快,模型改进得越快。他拿 Linux 打比方:透明,修得快,反而更安全。
  • 本地化。法语有加拿大法语、法国法语、喀麦隆法语,机器翻译搞不定这种颗粒度,得靠全世界的人帮你把语言绑进具体的文化场景。
  • 产品。最终目的是让 Meta 自家的产品变好,这才是变现的地方。

内部有没有反对声音?有,主要是竞争顾虑:技术放出去,被人捡走了怎么办。Joe 的回应是速度。Llama 1 在 2023 年 2 月,Llama 2 在 7 月,Purple Llama 在 12 月,Llama 3.1 在 2024 年 7 月。跑得足够快,就不怕别人捡走昨天的技术。扎克伯格在宣言里用的词是「标准化」,要让 Llama 无处不在,就得拆掉那些人为设置的门槛。

模型正在变成大宗商品

Stephanie Zhan 把问题推向行业:模型会不会连最前沿都逃不过同质化?

Joe 拿 GPT-4o mini 举例:输入每百万 token 15 美分,输出 60 美分,便宜到离谱,效果还很好。再看 Meta 自己,一周之内把全尺寸的最优模型全部放出。他的判断很明确:数据和算力堆到位,第一梯队是可以被逼近的,模型本身正在走向商品化,价值会挪到别处。

挪到哪?Meta 的答案是 Meta AI 这个助手,是 Instagram 和 WhatsApp 里的智能体。模型继续创新,新模态、新语言,但变现靠产品。

给创业者的建议更直接。他说 Llama 3 的训练成本高到不能对外讲,Llama 4 只会更贵。现在再从零做预训练,创业公司这笔账很难算得平。他给的路是:用开源模型打底,把团队工程结构想清楚,需要做 LLMOps 的人、做数据微调的人、会搭 RAG 的人。他还画了一个混合架构的图景:简单查询跑在设备上换低延迟,复杂交互交给云端,开源给了你自由拆分的能力。

然后他点了一个很多人踩过的坑。不少 API 服务提供微调,用的是 LoRA 技术,你把数据传上去训练,练完LoRA 权重拿不到,只能继续用他家的推理。

「我交出了数据,却拿不到由这些数据生成的知识产权,还被绑在对方的推理服务上。这买卖不划算。」

开源模型给你的是权重本身,想蒸馏就蒸馏,想部署到设备就部署到设备。护城河在哪?他的答案只有两句:你的数据,你和用户的交互。

Mistral 的难处,和 Llama 3 的真实打法

聊到 Mistral,Joe 的感情有点复杂,因为那批人本来是他带过的团队。Guillaume Lample 和 Timothée Lacroix 当年在 FAIR 做 AI 数学,白天推进研究,晚上到处「薅」算力,硬是训练出了 Llama 1。他形容这是合作过最拼的团队,「估计现在睡得更少了」。

但他也点出了 Mistral 的结构性难题:一边开源模型,一边靠托管模型赚钱,结果生态里的 Together、Fireworks、Lepton 用更低的单价和它自己竞争。GPT-4o mini 一降价,日子更紧,这也是它把许可证改成仅限研究用途的原因。Mistral Large 2 在 Artificial Analysis 的综合榜单上排在一个 70B 模型之下,当然那是混合基准的分。Joe 说还没内部评测,但态度是「多多益善,模型越多越好」。他还补了一句:生成式 AI 这个行当,每天早上醒来都要做好心理准备,可能又有新模型发布,「这就是干这行的乐趣」。

有人问,前沿实验室的策略是不是都差不多。Joe 的回答挺诚实。Llama 3 的论文写了 96 页,牵头写论文的同事说,写论文比训模型还累。这篇论文透露的打法是:Llama 3 没冒多大的研究风险,主攻的是把规模推满。用 GQA 注意力机制压推理成本,15 万亿 token,后训练大量掺合成数据,1.6 万多张 GPU 同时训练。

他拿 GPT-3 论文类比:一作 Tom Brown(现在在 Anthropic)当年做的事,本质也是把已知架构推到极限。至于「我要训 10 万张 GPU」这种话,Joe 的评价是「祝你好运」。GPU 会坏,没有顶级的 infra 和 MLSys 团队根本玩不转,这事一点都不轻松。

代价他也讲了。架构终究要演进,AI21 的 Jamba 把 Transformer 和 Mamba 混搭,基准很好看,但参数没超过 100 亿,没人知道推到更大规模还成不成立。学术界一堆聪明人,缺的就是算力,好想法没法在足够大的规模上验证。Llama 4 已经在看一批候选架构,包括 MoE。他给了一个框架:研究风险和确定性执行之间是一场交换,风险换的是性能上限。

模型开发是不是越来越像软件开发?Joe 用了个「Llama 列车」的类比:新能力像新特性,赶上哪班车就上哪班车,按节奏发版。安全组件已经这么干了,PromptGuard 和新版 Llama Guard 独立发布、独立迭代。但研究和产品是两种东西,产品要尽量确定,研究天生不确定,「失败了它就叫研究」,得允许它有非零的概率彻底炸掉。

推理从哪来,评测为什么靠不住

Sonya 把话题转到智能体推理。Joe 给的信息里最值钱的一条:预训练语料里代码越多,模型推理越强。这事现在听着像常识,一年前大家才想明白:代码天然一步一步、讲逻辑,喂多了模型自然学会分步思考。数学同理,科学论文也管用,科学家写作本身就讲步骤、讲图表逻辑。

FAIR 当年有个项目叫 Galactica,用 arXiv 论文训练科学模型,主导的 Robert Stojnic 和 Ross Taylor 也来自 Papers with Code 团队。发布时骂声一片,现在回头看,Joe 说那是「最酷的项目之一,领先了时代」。

后训练这边全是取舍。你可以把模型往代码上猛调,Code Llama 就是这么干的,效果很好,但其他能力会掉。通用模型要挑的,是帕累托前沿上那个点。谁都能挑一个基准猛优化,然后宣布自己超过 GPT-4,问题是整体能力跟不跟得上,这是两码事。

更大的麻烦是评测饱和了。社区的习惯是定一个基准就往死里优化,「模型 A 的 MMLU 分数更高,实际聊起来反而不如模型 B」这种事天天发生。他点名两个方向相对靠谱的:LMSYS 的 Chatbot Arena 和 LiveBench,因为更接近真实交互。他的结论:先找到推理的杀手级应用,才知道该为什么数据去优化。

小模型、数据墙,和明天就能用的清单

小模型这块,Joe 给了三个具体场景。

  • 设备端。苹果在讲,谷歌拿 Gemma 和 Gemini 覆盖安卓。隐私敏感的数据留在手机上,聊天记录喂给端上的 RAG,配个迷你向量库,8B 级别的模型就能做本地摘要。「把最近 15 条消息总结一下」这种需求,根本不用上云。
  • 安全分类器。Meta 内部的 Llama Guard 建在 8B 上,作为二级模型跑着其实挺贵,内部已经在试更小的。这类模型本质是分类器,不做自回归生成,还能再压。
  • 边缘和私有化部署。很多任务小模型已经够用,复杂查询留给云端大模型兜底。

至于吵翻天的「数据墙」,他的态度分两层。合成数据这条路已经被验证了,这次发布后训练用了几百万条带标注的合成数据,大部分由 405B 自己生成。数据授权也在变成军备竞赛,OpenAI 在买,Meta 也在买,谷歌手里还有 YouTube,大公司在数据上的优势只会更明显。墙到了吗?他说还没到,然后开了个玩笑:把日程定在一年后,到时候再聊。

快问快答里有两个细节值得记。问 SWE-bench 什么时候过 50%,他不敢给年份,任何基准一旦被盯上,破解速度都会快过所有人的预测。问开源模型什么时候超过前沿,他笑了:这个问题你们以后不用问了,405B 已经在那个梯队里了。至于 Meta 会不会一直开源,他指了指扎克伯格那封信,从 PyTorch 到 FAIR 再到 Llama,这家公司开放了很多年,谈不上是一时兴起。节目最后他还说,去看论文末尾的致谢名单,他甚至想要一段星球大战式的滚动字幕来放所有贡献者的名字,Llama 是一个村子的人合力做出来的。

最后给几条明天就能用的。

  • 还在用 API 微调的,翻一下合同,确认 LoRA 权重能不能导出。拿不到,认真考虑换开源方案。
  • 405B 的输出现在可以合法拿来做蒸馏和合成数据,英伟达和 AWS 都出了现成服务,小模型团队可以直接用。
  • 团队配置照着 Joe 的清单补:LLMOps、数据微调、RAG,这三类人比多招一个预训练研究员更急。
  • 评测别只盯 MMLU,把 Chatbot Arena 和 LiveBench 加进来,最好再自建一组贴着自家产品场景的题。
  • 隐私敏感、高频低难度的任务放到端上跑小模型,复杂查询留给云端,混合着来。

模型免费了,护城河得自己挖。Joe 那句话值得贴在工位上:你的数据,你和用户的交互,才是你的护城河。

文稿来源:sequoiacap.com;机器转写可能有识别错误,人名与数字请以音频为准。
id="podcast-transcript" data-framer-component-type="RichTextContainer" style="transform:none">Joe Spisak: If I was a founder right now, I would absolutely adopt open source. It forces me though, to look at the engineering complexion of my org, and think I’m going to need people doing LLMOps and things like data fine tuning and how to build RAG and things. And APIs. And there’s plenty of APIs that allow you to do this, but ultimately you want control. Like, your moat is your data, your moat is your interaction with users. Stephanie Zhan: Hi, everyone. Welcome to Training Data. Today we’re excited to welcome Joe Spisak, Director of PM for Generative AI at Meta, where he leads Llama and third-party ecosystem efforts. Joe spent the last decade in AI, leading product at PyTorch and working on initiatives that span protein folding and AI math, many of which have spun out for Meta into their own startups. We’re speaking to Joe just two days after the Llama 3.1 405B launch, and we’re excited to get his view on questions like: where is the open source ecosystem headed? Will models commoditize even at the frontier? Is model development becoming more like software development? And what’s next in agents and reasoning, small models, data and more? The Llama 3.1 405B launchStephanie Zhan: Joe, thank you so much for being here today. We’re so excited to have you just two days after the Llama 3.1 405B launch. It’s an incredible gift to the ecosystem. We’d love to learn a little bit more about how you—what specific capabilities you think the 405B is particularly unique at, especially in comparison to the other state of the art models. Joe Spisak: Oh, thanks so much for having me. This is so much fun. I haven’t done a podcast like this since, I think, pre-COVID. Stephanie Zhan: [laughs] Joe Spisak: So it’s, like, fun to be in the same room and just, like, chatting about this cool stuff. Yeah, I mean, we’re, like, beyond excited at Meta. This was something that I think a lot of us have been working on for such a long time—months and months and months. And, you know, we kind of put out that nice little, like, appetizer, I’ll call it, in April. Stephanie Zhan: Yeah. Joe Spisak: Like, Llama 3. And, like, I was actually, like, “Are people really gonna, like, be that excited about these models?” And, like, the response was through the roof. Like, oh my God! Like, everyone’s excited, but they really don’t know what’s really coming. And so you kind of hold that—kind of had to hold that back for a while and kind of keep it to ourselves and, like—and then kind of build up for this launch. And the 405B is a monster. It’s a great model. And I think the biggest thing we’ve learned about the 405B is it’s just a great—it’s like a massive teacher for other models. And we kind of had that plan all along because when you have a big model, you can use it for, like, improving small models or just distillation. And that’s how the 8 and 70Bs became the great models that they are. And I mean, in terms of capabilities, we listen to the community. We listen obviously to our own product teams, right? Because we got to build products for Meta. And long context was one of the biggest things people wanted. And we have much longer context internally even than what we released. But we saw just the use cases start to build up. Multilingual. I mean, we’re a global company, so we released more languages, many many more to come, because obviously Meta has billions of people on the platform in hundreds of countries. And so I think that was like—to me, those are like table stakes things, but they’re really done well on the models. Like, I think we spent a lot of time in post training on our different languages and improving them and safety. Just they’re really, really high quality. So we don’t just pre train on, like, a ton of data and say, “Look at us, we’re multilingual!” You know, we actually did a lot of work in our SFT phase, in supervised fine tuning, and a lot of safety work. I think one of the coolest things that I’m excited about—well, there’s a couple things I’m excited about, but one is tool use. Like, I think, oh my God, zero-shot-tool-use. This is going to be crazy for the community. I mean, we show a few examples. Like, we can show Call Wolfram, or we can Brave search or Google search and it works really great. But zero shot tool use is going to be a game changer. The ability to kind of call the code interpreter and actually run code or kind of build your own kind of plugin for things like RAG and other things like, and have that really be state of the art, I think it’s going to be a really big game changer. And I think just the fact that we released the 405 itself, and we changed our license so you can actually use our data, like, that was a big deal. That was a big discussion. We had many meetings with Mark on that, and ultimately landing on a place where—this was this pain point for the community for so long, these closed models. Like, I can’t use the outputs, or maybe I can use them, but maybe I’m using slightly unscrupulously or whatever. We actually are encouraging people to do it. The open source licenseStephanie Zhan: I’m sure that was a tough decision to make. Walk us through the things that you had to consider in actually making that leap to open up licensing in that way, making it so permissible. Joe Spisak: Yeah, licensing is a huge topic in itself, obviously. We could probably spend the whole podcast talking about it. I don’t want to, but we could. I think we wanted, number one, just unlock new things. Stephanie Zhan: Yeah. Joe Spisak: Like, I think we wanted to  have the 405 and our Llama 3.1 models differentiate, give people new capabilities. Like, we just looked at, like, what people were really excited about in the community, not only in enterprise and products, but also in the research community because we obviously have a research team, and we work with academia and we talked to folks. I mean, Percy Liang at Stanford texts me all the time saying, you know, “When are you going to release it? When are you going to release it? Can I use it? Can I use it?” Percy, like, you know, stay patient. But I think we heard them, and we knew kind of what they wanted. And I think ultimately we wanted Llama everywhere. We wanted just adoption, you know, maximal adoption, really the world using it and building on it. And I think Mark even used in his letter he put out, like, you know, the new standard or standardized. So I think, like, to do that, you kind of have to enable stuff like that, or you kind of have to unblock all these different use cases and really look at what the community wants to do and make sure that you don’t have these kind of artificial barriers. And that’s what the discussion really was. And so actually even beyond that, we started working with partners like Nvidia and AWS, and they started building distillation recipes, and even synthetic data generation services, which is pretty cool. I mean, you can start to use those and actually create specialized models from it. And the data that—I mean, we know how good the data is because we used it in our smaller models. It’s really good and it improved our model significantly. What’s in it for Meta?Sonya Huang: I’m going to pull on the open source thread a little bit more. Joe Spisak: Sure. Sonya Huang: And I’ve read Zuck’s manifesto. It was great. But I’m trying to wrap my head around, like, what’s in it for Meta? This is a massive investment to open source. In some ways, you’re leaving a lot of money on the table because you now have a state of the art model that you’re offering to everybody for free. And so I guess, is this an offensive move? Is this a defensive move? What’s in it for Meta? Joe Spisak: I mean, we’ve—well, first of all, our business model doesn’t depend on this model to make us money directly. Sonya Huang: Yeah. Joe Spisak: So we’re not selling a cloud service. We’ve never been a cloud company. We’ve always worked, I would say, with a partner ecosystem all the way back to the five years I was helping to lead PyTorch and the ecosystem and the community we built around that. Like, we never built a service. We probably could have in some way, but it would have been weird. We saw basically—going back to PyTorch, we kind of saw it as this kind of lingua franca kind of bridge to this, like, area of high entropy. This is kind of weird way to say it, but like there’s all this innovation happening. How do we kind of build a bridge to it and actually be able to harness all that innovation? And the way to do that is to be open, and it’s to kind of get the world building on your stuff. And I think that ethos is kind of carried over into Llama. And, you know, if you look at PyTorch, like, that was a huge way for us to kind of pull in—you know, at the time when we really started working on PyTorch in earnest, computer vision and, like, CNNs and all that, right? If you remember that. Old, old times now, but we actually would see these architectures come, like, constantly. The people would—and they’d write code and they’d publish it in PyTorch, and we’d take it internally, we’d evaluate it. People would open source models and put them out on model zoos, and we’d evaluate them and we’d see just how quickly the community was improving things. And we’d actually leverage that especially for, like, integrity applications where we release hateful memes and some of these other data sets. We just saw the improvements week over week, month over month. And it was built on something that we were using internally, so it was very easy for us to just take it inside. So I think Llama is definitely similar in that regard where when academia and when companies start to red team these models or, you know, try and jailbreak them, we want people to do that to our models and so we can improve. And I think that’s a big reason. Sonya Huang: [laughs] Joe Spisak: And it’s like, be careful what you wish for, right? Of course. But, like, it’s the same with Linux, right? Linux is open source and the kernel is open source, and people will—you know, it’s much more secure when things are transparent and bugs can be pushed faster. And so that helps us a lot. I think there’s also the angle of, you know, we don’t want this to turn into kind of a completely closed environment. I think just like today if you look at Linux and Windows, in my opinion there’s room for both, right? There’s room for closed, room for open, and people use depending on what they need and the applications. I think that there’s going to be a world of open models, and I think there’s going to be a world of closed models. And I think that’s totally fine. And I think we want to—because of our global footprint and everything, we want to also democratize this technology and make sure that it’s available to everyone. And of course, if we can help, because we’re a global company and because this technology is global, if that can help us also localize the technology as well, because localization isn’t just like doing NMT and, like, then post training on that data, right? Like, machine translation is fantastic, but when you actually support a language, you actually have to tie a locale to it. And so, you know, take French, for example. Like, how many different versions of French or locations of French? There’s, of course, Canadian, which—I love Canada. I used to live there. There’s French Canadian, there’s France, there’s Cameroon. There’s like all these different, like, versions. And so, like, having the world build on your technology and help to, like, localize is like a really big benefit. So for us, it’s really a bridge to the community and a bridge to really make the technology available to everyone. And again, it’s like, it’s not something that we’re building a business around. We fundamentally believe that doing this will actually help build better Meta products. So that’s our ultimate goal, obviously. Sonya: I love that. Joe Spisak: Yeah. Why not open source?Sonya Huang: What was the primary argument against open sourcing? Was there one? Joe Spisak: I mean, there was definitely, like, competitive concerns we talked through. You know, do you want to give your technology—you know, put it out there and that? And I think we’re, like, less concerned about that because we’re moving really fast. Sonya Huang: Yeah. Joe Spisak: Like, if you look back, I mean, I’ve been in Meta, like, close to what, six or seven years now. And, like, in the last year or so, we’ve done—you know, we had a Connect launch. We released Purple Llama last December. We released Llama 3.1. Before that, we released Llama 2 in July. Llama 1 was, like, in February. So just if you think about the pace. Sonya Huang: The velocity’s incredible. Joe Spisak: The pace of innovation that’s, like, coming out of our team and our company is just at a crazy pace right now. So I’m not too worried about it. I don’t think we’re that worried about it. Will frontier models commoditize?Stephanie Zhan: I’d love to kind of move into your personal views on the broader ecosystem. I think a lot of the questions that people have center around what happens to the value of all these models, especially as Meta open sources more of them at the state of the art level. With Llama 3.1, with OpenAI launching GPT-4o mini, what is your view on—do models commoditize even at the state of the art frontier? Joe Spisak: Well, this is a great question. I mean, I think if you look at just even the last two weeks, I mean, 4o mini is a really, really good model. I think input per million tokens is something like fifteen cents, sixty cents out. So it’s incredibly cheap to run, but it’s also an excellent model. They’ve done an incredible job in distilling and getting to something that’s, like, really, really performant, yet really, really cheap. So I think Sam is definitely pushing on that. And then if you look at what we’ve done in the last week in pushing out, I would say pretty compelling state of the art models across the spectrum, I do think, like, it’s rapidly getting to a place where the model is going to be kind of a commodity. I mean, I think there’s this frontier of data where we can certainly gather data from the internet, we can license data, but at some point there is kind of like some frontier of limitations, I think, that we’re all going to have. And this goes back to our conversation this week on The Bitter Lesson of data and scale and compute. Is that enough? It’s probably not quite enough, but it’s like compute and data becomes kind of, if you have enough of both, you can kind of get a first order approximation of the state of the art without anything else is kind of what we’ve seen. So I do think models are commoditizing. I think the value is elsewhere. And I look at Meta and I look at our products and I look at what we’re building. Like, that’s honestly where the value is for us. It’s Meta AI, it’s our agent. It’s all the technology that we’re going to put into Instagram and WhatsApp and in all of our end products where we actually are going to monetize, where we’re actually going to add real value. The model itself, I think definitely we’ll keep innovating—new modalities, new languages, new capabilities. That’s what research is, right? It’s pushing the frontier in emerging capabilities, and then we can leverage those in products. But the models are definitely pushing in that direction. What about startups?Stephanie Zhan: Yeah. If that’s the case, and all these existing companies that have massive distribution and wonderful applications that are already out in the wild can just adopt these state of the art models, what advice would you give to the whole wave of new startups that are trying to make it out there either building their own models, using other state of the art models and then trying to build applications on top? Joe Spisak: Yeah, I mean, there’s definitely, like, some model companies or companies that are building—you know, they’re pre-training foundation models. And it’s expensive. It’s like, I think we’re—you know, I can’t say how much Llama 3 cost, but it was very expensive and, you know, Llama 4 is going to be even more expensive. And so to me, given kind of the state of play and things, to me it doesn’t make that much sense if I was a startup to try and go in and do a pre-training. Like, I think the Llama models are absolutely incredible as foundations to build on. And so I do think, like, there is—you know, if I was a founder right now, I would absolutely adopt open source. It forces me though, to look at the engineering complexion of my org, and think I’m going to need people doing LLMOps and things like data fine tuning and how to build RAG and things. And APIs. And there’s plenty of APIs that allow you to do this, but ultimately you want control. Like, your moat is your data, your moat is your interaction with users. Joe Spisak: And you may want to deploy these things onto a device at some point and have a mixed interaction or something. You might want to have simpler queries running on your device and have very low latency interactions with your users. You might want to split and have a more cloud-based approach for more complex queries, more complex interactions. And I think, like, the open source approach gives you that flexibility. It gives you the ability to modify the models directly. You own the weights, you can run the weights, you can distill them yourself. There’s going to be distillation services that allow you to take your weights, distill them down to something smaller. That’s pretty awesome. We’re just now seeing the beginnings of that. So I think in my mind, control matters a lot. And ownership of the weights. There are a lot of API services where you’ll do fine tuning on your model. So you’re bringing your own data, you’re fine tuning, and they use something called low rank adaptation, or LoRA. And unfortunately, you don’t actually have access to those LoRA weights at the end of it. You’re kind of like, forced to use their inference. So you’re like, “Hmm. Let’s see, I’m kind of like, held hostage here. I’ve given my data, I don’t have access to the actual IP that was generated from that data, and now I’m forced to use their inference service. Like, that’s not a good deal.” So I think the open source kind of like brings an inherent freedom that I think that approach doesn’t. The Mistral teamSonya Huang: What do you think of Mistral Large was announced, I think maybe a day after Llama 3, 3.1. What do you think of them? And I guess more broadly for everybody at the frontier, is everyone kind of pursuing the same recipes, the same techniques, the same kind of compute scale data, et cetera? And so, like, everyone’s kind of going to be roughly similar at the frontier? Or do you think you guys are doing something very different? Joe Spisak: So first of all, on Mistral, I mean, amazing team. It was one of my old teams in FAIR. They were working on improving AI and mathematics. So Guillaume and Tim and the team are—and Marianne, they’re incredible. Stephanie Zhan: Joe was just talking about fun banter with Guillaume last night. [laughs] Joe Spisak: So I mean, this was like one of the scrappiest teams that I’ve ever worked with. I mean, the team I don’t think ever slept. So it was like basically by day they’re doing … Stephanie Zhan: Probably even less now. [laughs] Joe Spisak: Probably even less now. I mean, they would push the state of the art and, like, AI, and they’re improving and, you know, during the day. And we published some work on that, you know, I think a couple years ago now, geez! But by night, you know, they were basically scrappily, like, grabbing compute to train Llama 1. Joe Spisak: And so they were—you know, we were building large language models several years ago in FAIR. And, you know, that team basically just—like, they were just really ambitious, and they were kind of working by night. And that’s really where Llama 1 came from. Joe Spisak: So the team is great. I mean, I think they’re doing really good work. I think they’re definitely challenged in that they’re trying to also, like, open source models, but also make money. And models like 4o mini are not helping them. And this is, I think, why they changed their license, for example, to have a research-only license, which kind of makes sense because they were open sourcing models, and they immediately—like, their own ecosystem is competing with them in a lot of ways because they’ll release a model, they’ll host it, use this model, but then they have Together and Fireworks and Lepton and all these companies that provide sometimes a lower cost per million token offering. So it’s a really tough business right now. In terms of Large 2, I think it’s a really good model. I mean, just on paper. I haven’t evaluated it. We haven’t looked at it internally yet. I think if you look at artificial analysis, I think they added up in kind of, like—it was under, I think, like, the 70B model in terms of, like, quality. But, you know, that’s like a blended—you know, they blend a bunch of benchmarks to make that distinction. But on paper, it looks really good. We’re gonna evaluate it. I think, you know, for me anyway, like, the more the merrier. Like, the more models that are out there, the more companies are doing this, the better. It’s not—like, we’re not gonna be the only one, and I think that’s good that we’re not the only one. And I think, like, more generally, like, the Gen AI space, like, you wake up every single day and you kind of expect something like this, right? You expect them all to be released or something groundbreaking to happen, and that’s kind of like the fun of being in it. Are all frontier strategies comparable?Sonya Huang: Yeah, totally. Do you think everyone at the frontier is comparable, though? Like, are you all pursuing comparable strategies? Joe Spisak: Yeah, this is actually a good question because, you know, if you read the Llama 3 paper, which was, I think, 96 pages. Lots of citations, obviously. Sonya Huang: Lots of sharing. Joe Spisak: Lots of sharing, lots of, like, you know, contributors and core contributors and that. So, like, it was a detailed paper. And Lawrence and Angela on the team spearheaded writing that. And I think that was, like, one of the hardest things. Like, developing the model was relatively easy compared to writing the paper. It was a lot of work pulling that paper together. I think if you look at Llama 3, there was a lot of, I would say, innovation that happened, but also, we didn’t—we also didn’t, I would say, take on, like, a lot of research risk either. Sonya Huang: Yeah. Joe Spisak: So I would say, like, the primary things we really did with Llama, with the 405B, especially, was really pushing scale. I mean, it was still, you know—we use grouped-query attention, for example, so, you know, GQA. And that improves inference time and, you know, kind of helps solve the kind of quadratic attention computational challenge. We trained on over 15 trillion tokens. We did post training. We used synthetic data, which improved the models, the smaller models, quite a bit. We trained on over 16,000 GPUs on our training runs, which is something we hadn’t done before. It’s really, really hard to do that because GPUs fail and … Sonya Huang : I saw the table. Joe Spisak: Yeah, I mean, everyone’s like, “Oh, I’m just going to train on 100,000 GPUs.” Like, good luck, right? You better have a really, really great infra team, a really great MLSys team. You better be ready to innovate at that level because this is non trivial. Everyone says it’s easy or says you can do it, it’s non trivial. So I think, like, I almost look at Llama 3 as very similar to the GPT-3 paper. So if you ever talk to Tom, he was a lead author, Tom Brown, now at Anthropic. And there’s a reason why Tom was the first author on that paper is because, like, a lot of the innovation was really scale. It was really like how do I take something that’s an architecture and push it as hard as we can push it? And that involves like a lot at the MLSys kind of layer and infra layer and, like, how do I scale the algorithm? And so I think that was really, like, the mentality we had with Llama 3 and Llama 3.1. And I mean, internally, obviously we have a great research team, we have FAIR, we have research in our org, and we’re looking at lots of different architectures and MOE and other things. And so, you know, so I think we—you know, who knows what Llama 4 will be? We have a lot of candidate architectures, and we’re looking at it. But it’s kind of a trade off. It’s a trade off between how much risk you take on for research, and potentially how much reward or the ceiling of the potential improvements versus just v taking something that’s relatively known and, like, pushing scale and getting that to improve even more. So ultimately this becomes a trade off. Is model development becoming more like software development?Stephanie Zhan: I think this is such an interesting point. I actually also think it makes Llama and Meta quite unique in the strategy it’s taking. The words that I liked that you used yesterday were, “Is model development becoming more like software development?” I’m curious to hear if you think unlike what many of the other labs have been doing on pushing more of the research, you guys have been focused on just executing on strategies that you know work. Do you see that representative of the continuous strategy you think as you extend Llama out 4, 5, 6, 7, 8? And then also how do you think the other research labs and maybe some of the other startups in the ecosystem will react? Will they kind of switch and veer a little bit more to the strategy that you’ve been taking? Joe Spisak: I mean, it’s a really great question. We don’t have all the answers, for sure, I think. But there’s definitely, like, somewhere in the middle right now is kind of where I see things landing where, you know, we’ll continue to push on execution, we’ll continue to push models out. We’ll continue because we want our products to iteratively improve as well. So we want Meta AI improving constantly. And so there’s definitely like a software engineering analog here that’s happening where you can imagine something like a Llama train and new features and new capabilities get on that train. And we have a model release. It’s actually much easier when you start to componentize the capabilities, too. We’re doing that with safety right now. And you saw it in the release. We released PromptGuard and a new Llama Guard, and you can iterate on those components externally, and it’s great. Obviously, the core model is much more difficult. I do think we’ll start to include or start to push on the research side as well because the architecture is going to evolve. You’ve seen what AI21, for example, has done with their Jamba and their Mamba. And Evelyn kind of thinks Mamba is a new architecture that could have promise. I think what’s interesting, though, is to truly understand, like, the capabilities of the architecture, you kind of have to push the scale. And I think that’s what’s missing right now in the ecosystem is, you know, if you look at academia, and academia is like a lot of absolutely brilliant people there, but they don’t have a lot of access to compute. Sonya: Yeah. Joe Spisak: And that’s a problem because they have these great ideas, but they have no way to truly execute them at the level that’s needed to really understand will this actually scale? Because, like, the Jamba paper and model was really interesting and the benchmarks are great, but they didn’t scale it beyond, I think, like under 10 billion parameters. So you’re like, okay, what happens when, you know, we train this in 100? Do you still see those improvements or not? And no one really, at least outside of these labs, knows the answer yet. So I think that’s one challenge. So I think to me, we’re going to get into this hybrid space of we are going to push definitely on architecture. We have a very, very smart and well-accomplished research team, but we also are going to be, like—you know, we are going to be executing, and I think that’s when we start to get like a recipe. You know, we’re going to push it to the limits and, you know, we are going to start, you know, release—we’re going to continue to release more models on it, but in parallel to that, we have to push on architecture. And I think it just makes sense because the next breakthrough, you know, at some point you’re going to reach, like, a kind of a theoretical limit and you need to evolve the architecture, right? So I see kind of a little bit of an in between. And obviously we’re really good at execution. I think we’re pretty good at execution, but we’re also good in research. And we just need to marry those two so it makes sense. Because, like, research and products are very different, right? Joe Spisak: Like, one should be pretty deterministic, the product side. And one is inherently non deterministic, right? It’s like, is this going to work? I don’t know. It’s a really big bet. If it fails, it’s research. Like, it should have a non zero chance of completely blowing up in our face. We just need to go in another direction. But that’s what research is. Agentic reasoningSonya Huang: I’m curious about one branch where a lot of, I think, model research is happening right now, agentic reasoning. And I think you all have announced really great results in reasoning. I’m curious, maybe at a very basic level, how do you define reasoning? And then are you all seeing reasoning fall out of kind of scale during pre training or is it post training? And is there a lot of work left to do on the reasoning side? Joe Spisak: Yeah, reasoning is a bit of a loaded area. I mean, you could argue it’s things like multi step. And I think unfortunately, the best examples we have are kind of like the sort of semi gimmicky Bob is driving the bus and he picks—you know, like those kind of like things, right? If you troll LocalLLaMA, you’ll see a billion of those, right? But those actually force the model to take multiple steps to respond to you and think through and logically kind of respond. I think coding is actually really—like, you know, when you look at pre training and so, like, to answer your question directly, like, reasoning improvements come in both post training and pre training. So what we’ve learned, which is now, like, everyone’s like, “Oh, of course this is the case.” But definitely, like, the last year or so, everyone’s kind of learned that, you know, having a lot of code in your kind of pre training corpus really improves reasoning. But when you think about it, like, of course, duh. It’s step by step. It’s very logical. You know, code is just logical by nature and kind of step by step. And, like, if you incorporate a lot of that in your pre training, your model will reason better. And then we, of course, like, look at examples in post training and SFT to improve as well. So we look at the pre-trained model, and it kind of depends on how you balance things as well, because you can balance how well your model reasons with how well it responds in different languages. Ultimately, in post training, everything’s a little bit of a trade off. Like, you can super optimize things for coding if you want to. And we did that with Code Llama. It was really great. But of course, the model will suffer in other areas. And so ultimately it becomes what kind of Pareto frontier of capabilities we want to bring out if it’s a general model. And I think yeah, I mean, ultimately it’s a trade off. So anyone can kind of pick a benchmark or some capability and say, “I’m going to super optimize for it,” and say, “By the way, I’m better than GPT-4.” Well, great. Anyone can do that. But is your model as generally capable as GPT-4 or Llama 3.1 or whatever? That, I think, is a different story. What future levers will unlock reasoning?Stephanie Zhan: What do you think are the future levers to unlock reasoning for anyone going forward? Joe Spisak: I mean, the obvious answer is data. The more data, the more code and supervised data that you can get, I think, is a natural answer. I mean, I think we need to find applications as well for how we, like, define it. And that would help us. Like, once you’ve kind of start finding, like, those kind of killer applications, then you can, like—then you kind of know where to kind of focus in terms of your data. Stephanie Zhan: What you need to solve for. Joe Spisak: Exactly, what you’re solving for. Like, and this goes back to, like, evals and, like, what is your eval? Because we’re starting to saturate evals. Sonya: Yeah. Yeah. Joe Spisak: And so we tend to as a community, like, we define a benchmark or a metric and we just, like, optimize the living. hell out of it. And it’s great, but then you actually look at the model in an actual environment and you’re like, “Oh. Well, that model has a better MMoU score.” Great. But, like, how does it actually respond? Well, it doesn’t respond as well, but it has a better MMoU score. And so I think we need better evals and better benchmarks that allow us to, you know, I would say, like, find a clear line of sight to actual interactions. And I think, like, you know, the live—what is it called, the abacus benchmark? The live bench, I think it’s called—I can’t remember the name of it—it’s pretty good. I was looking at that. And of course, like, LMSYS and Chatbot Arena, like, these are more natural. Even though, you know, it’s still not perfect, but it’s, like, moving in the right direction of things are, like, more humanlike interactions versus, like, a static dataset or a static prompt set that is not that helpful. So I think, like, once we start to find these other, like, what reasoning use cases make sense, we’re gonna start to generate more data and you’re gonna start to improve the model there. And you’re gonna—and hopefully that kind of has, again, line of sight to a benchmark or an eval that actually feels like it improves an end product. And a lot of this actually depends on the end product, of course. What is my application? Will coding and math lead to unlocks?Stephanie Zhan: Yeah. Out of curiosity, I think within large research labs, coding and math have always been two primary categories in trying to unlock reasoning. In the startup ecosystem now, we’re seeing more folks who really want to go it from the math angle. Do you have a perspective on whether or not that has led to interesting unlocks? Joe Spisak: I mean, the answer is yeah. I mean, I think if you look at our data or look at least at our models, we’ve—like, coding and math have been, I would say, the primary levers. So I mean, it’s—yeah, I mean, I think that’s—like, having more obviously is better because obviously math is also very logical and very, like, stepwise. So obviously you can see the pattern here: the more data you have that kind of follows that sort of pattern, the more your model is going to be able to reason. And you can see that in how actually models respond. Like, if they start and you ask them to respond and, like, step me through your thinking process, right? And it’ll actually do that. And some models do it better than others. So anything like that. I think scientific papers, like, also there’s like—you know, we had some projects out of FAIR that, like, trained on, you know, like, arxiv papers. And you can see not only is it like code and math, like pure mathematics, but also like scientific papers, which is like, scientists are very logical in how they write things and how they step wise and how they create images of their, like, charts and stuff. And, like, that also I think we’ve seen. Like, just general scientific information, like, helps as well. Sonya: Interesting. Joe Spisak: Galactica was our project. Yeah. So Robert and Ross from the Papers with Code team led that. Still, in my opinion, like, one of the coolest projects ever. Stephanie Zhan: [laughs] Joe Spisak: It got a lot of bad press, but wow, they were ahead of their time, in my opinion. Small ModelsStephanie Zhan: I’d love to talk a little bit about small models. Joe Spisak: Sure. Sonya: Given the scale of capital and the compute that many startups have, the 8B and 70B models are an incredible gift to the ecosystem. Joe Spisak: Totally. Stephanie Zhan: And it’s funny that you called them ’appetizers’ at the start because I think they’re super powerful for that set, but they’re also really powerful for a number of different applications where you want smaller models. And so I’m curious to hear: what do you hope to see developers use the 8B and 70B models for, given that they are best in class for their size of model? Joe Spisak: So it’s interesting though, when we released—we released in April Llama 3, we released an 8 and a 70, the ’appetizers,’ as we call them, you know, the 8B was actually better than the Llama 2-70B by leaps. So we were—you know, I had to look at the chart and I was like, “Is this right? Like, is that really the case?” And we’re like, “Yeah, like, it really is.” It was that much better. 7X more dataSonya Huang: What’s the intuition for how that happened? Joe Spisak: I mean, it was more data. We had what, 7X more data. Obviously, like, we put a bunch more compute at it as well. So, you know, going back to compute and data, you know, we’re pushing on those. So I think we saw just like—it’s almost like every generation—which is again, the generations are accelerating—you start to see the benchmarks for, like, a large model basically get pushed down into the smaller, like, size regime. And so, you know, 70 becomes an 8 and, you know, like, internally, we have models where the 8 is, you know—like, on a much even smaller than 8, actually. We’re starting to see really nice benchmarks on even smaller models. So you continue to see, like—and that, you know, that the models improve at smaller scale. And that, I think, is just we’re pushing the architecture. We’re pushing scale, and we’re starting—you know, we haven’t quite saturated it yet. And I think that’s really interesting. So, you know, for me, one of the biggest reasons that I think a small architecture is useful is obviously on-device. Everyone loves to talk about on-device and Apple’s talking about that. And Google has Gemma models and Gemini running in Android devices. So I think on-device makes sense. I think safety is kind of interesting because one of the things—we have our own internal versions of Llama Guard which we used that are orchestrated for our applications internally at the company, at Meta. And today they’re built on an 8B model, which is kind of expensive to run, if you think about a safety model that’s kind of like the secondary model. And so I do think internally, we’ve been experimenting with much smaller models in that regard. And it creates efficiency, it lowers latency because really, those models are really just classifiers. They’re not really autoregressive, like chat-like interfaces. They really just classify the input prompt of does that violate this whatever category in the taxonomy, in the output, the model? When it generates, does it violate that kind of stuff? So you can actually push those even further. Sonya: Yeah. Joe Spisak: I think that there’s also really interesting cases, though, for on-device, where you almost have—when you think about privacy and you think about data, you want to have your data stay on-device. You can think about a RAG architecture on-device. So you have data, even your chat history, that’s on, say, WhatsApp or other things, you can imagine that model having access to data, aggregating it, and then running some type of almost like a mini-vector database, right, where you’re using RAG and doing your kind of fuzzy search or fuzzy matching with your small model, and that becomes this kind of own system in itself. And you can basically do things like local summarization. Like, I don’t know, like, I get so many text messages. Like, you know, “Hey, summarize my last 15 messages, please because I’ve been in meetings and I haven’t looked at my phone.” And that’s super useful. And then I don’t have to send data up to the cloud or anywhere else. So there’s those kind of use cases, I think, that’s where small models actually are going to be really compelling. And then for super-complex queries and things, obviously you have a big model in the cloud that can always service those. But for many things, I think on-device or even in-the-edge and on-prem, these small models actually can do pretty good. Are we going to hit a wall?Sonya Huang: You talked about scaling up compute and data as, you know, the two fundamental vectors to improve performance. I guess there’s been a lot of chatter about how we are going to hit a wall, or maybe we’re not going to hit a wall on data, and maybe synthetic data is the answer, et cetera. I’m curious your perspective on that. Like, is there an impending wall that we’re going to hit most likely of, you know, cheap, accessible data. What do you think? How do we scale beyond that? Joe Spisak: I mean, I think we’ve shown with this release that synthetic data does help a lot. I mean, I think, you know, in pre training, you know, we train on 15 trillion tokens, give or take. And in post training, we generated a ton of, you know, millions of annotated synthetic data, a lot of it generated by the 405B. We obviously paid, you know, for annotations as well. I do think synthetic data is a potential path forward. I think it’s gonna—like, we know now, and the kind of proof is in the models, right? It’s great to talk about in that. I do think data is going to be a challenge at some point for us. And this is why I think companies are licensing a lot of data these days to get access. I mean, Open AI is licensing data. We’re licensing certainly data. I think having access to services that generate data to improve models, you know, is important. So I think that inherently is an advantage for a lot of companies. I mean, Google has YouTube, right? They can—I’m sure it’s a value to them. So which kind of implies that, you know, bigger companies have an advantage, which is not something that’s anything new, right? We’ve been talking about this for a long time. In terms of a data wall, I don’t know. I mean, I think we’re not there yet. I would say like, let’s talk another—let’s schedule this for like a year out and let’s see where we are next year. I’ll save my calendar for one year exactly from now in Meta AI. But let’s talk in a year and see where we are. We haven’t hit it yet, and we’re still scaling and we’re still gathering a lot of data, and we’re generating data and our models are still continuing to improve. Lightning roundSonya: Let’s close it out with some rapid fire questions. Joe Spisak: Sure. Sounds great. Stephanie Zhan: In what year do you think we’ll surpass the 50 percent threshold on SWE-bench? Joe Spisak: [laughs] Good question. If I’ve learned anything, it’ll be faster than whatever answer I give you, because I think any benchmark will, as soon as we zero in on it, people are going to go and figure it out. So I don’t have an answer. Sonya: [laughs] Joe Spisak: It’ll be fast, I’m sure. Sonya: You know, one of the questions we have been asking people is in what year will an open source model surpass the other companies on the front, the other models on the frontier? And we have to take out that question now thanks to you all this week. Joe Spisak: I mean, it’s true. We’re almost there. I mean, I think 405B is incredible. It’s definitely—it’s definitely in that class. Sonya: Yeah, absolutely. Joe Spisak: Which is incredible. Sonya: Will Meta always open source Llama? Joe Spisak: I mean, I think Mark’s pretty committed. You saw his letter. I mean, we’ve open sourced, you know, for years and years now back to PyTorch, to FAIR to Llama models. I mean, this isn’t something that’s a flash in the pan for the company. The company’s been committed to open source for a long time. So I wouldn’t never say never, but I mean, the company and Mark are really committed. Sonya: Amazing. Joe, thank you so much for being here today, and also for all the work that you’re giving to the entire ecosystem. I think the entire AI community is very much grateful for all the work that you’ve done with pushing out Llama and the advancements to come. Joe Spisak: It’s a huge team. Check out the paper. Look at all the acknowledgments. Sonya: I mean, we spent all of yesterday reading it. Joe Spisak: We need, like, the Star Wars, like, scrolling text of all the contributors because it was an incredibly big team. Sonya: I was thinking about that same thing. [laughs] Joe Spisak: So my hat’s off to the team. This was a—I mean, this absolutely took a village to get Llama out there, and I’m so proud and excited to represent the team here. So thank you. Sonya: Thank you. Mentioned in this episode: Mentioned in this episode:  Llama 3.1 405B paper Open Source AI Is the Way Forward: Mark Zuckerberg essay released with Llama 3.1. Mistral Large 2 The Bitter Lesson by Rich Sutton FAIR: The Fundamental AI Research team at Meta MLSys: Machine Learning and Systems teams and conference  Jamba: The first hybrid of Transformers and the Mamba Structured State Space model (SSM) architecture Galactica: LLM for science authored by Meta researchers Ross Taylor and Robert Stojnic (who also launched Papers with Code) <div class="framer-mcvrsd" id="

As head of Product Management for Generative AI at Meta, Joe Spisak leads the team behind Llama, which just released the new 3.1 405B model. We spoke with Joe just two days after the model’s release to ask what’s new, what it enables, and how Meta sees the role of open source in the AI ecosystem.

Joe shares that where Llama 3.1 405B really focused is on pushing scale (it was trained on 15 trillion tokens using 16,000 GPUs) and he’s excited about the zero-shot tool use it will enable, as well as its role in distillation and generating synthetic data to teach smaller models. He tells us why he thinks even frontier models will ultimately commoditize—and why that’s a good thing for the startup ecosystem.

Hosted by: Stephanie Zhan and Sonya Huang, Sequoia Capital

Mentioned in this episode: 
Llama 3.1 405B paper
Open Source AI Is the Way Forward: Mark Zuckerberg essay released with Llama 3.1.
Mistral Large 2
The Bitter Lesson by Rich Sutton

00:00 Introduction
01:28 The Llama 3.1 405B launch
05:02 The open source license
07:01 What's in it for Meta?
10:19 Why not open source?
11:16 Will frontier models commoditize?
12:41 What about startups?
16:29 The Mistral team
19:36 Are all frontier strategies comparable?
22:38 Is model development becoming more like software development?
26:34 Agentic reasoning
29:09 What future levers will unlock reasoning?
31:20 Will coding and math lead to unlocks?
33:09 Small models
34:08 7X more data
37:36 Are we going to hit a wall?
39:49 Lightning round

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